U.S. dairy farmers eked out small increases in milk production in August and September, according to USDA’s preliminary data, after seeing output lag year ago levels in 12 of the previous 13 months.

September output was reported at 18.2 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent from September 2023. The 24-state total, at 17.5 billion pounds, was up 0.2 percent. Component adjusted production was up 1.6 percent, according to StoneX Dairy Group.

August output in the 50 states was revised up 89 million pounds from last month’s report, resulting in production being up 0.4 percent, instead of the 0.1 percent decrease originally reported. The 24-state total was raised 85 million pounds, resulting in a 0.5 percent gain from a year ago, instead of the 0.1 percent increase reported.

Third auarter output totaled 56.0 billion pounds, up slightly from a year ago. Milk cows numbered 9.33 million, down 3,000 from second quarter, and 41,000 head less than the same period a year ago.

September cows totaled 9.328 million head, unchanged from the August count which was revised up 3,000 head, but was 38,000 or 0.4 percent below September 2023. The 24-state count, at 8.887 million, was also unchanged from August, which was revised up 9,000 head, but was 20,000 or 0.2 percent below a year ago.

September output per cow in the 50 states averaged 1,950 pounds, up 9 pounds or 0.5 percent from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 1,966 pounds, was up 8 pounds or 0.4 percent from a year ago.

HighGround Dairy points out, “The most substantial growth came from Texas and Kansas where cheese capacity is being added, plus Idaho and South Dakota. Idaho’s totals have been up for three consecutive months, recovering from the year on year decreases earlier in 2024 due to avian influenza.”

California, where the influenza has spread rapidly, saw milk production still rise 1 million pounds, virtually unchanged from a year ago. Cow numbers were down 4,000 head but output per cow was up 5 pounds. Next month’s report will likely show some revision to this data as well as a marked decrease in October milk output due to the bird flu.

Wisconsin milk was down 14 million pounds or 0.5 percent from a year ago, on 4,000 fewer cows and 5 pounds less per cow. The Daily Dairy Report blamed poor forage quality for the decline.

Colorado output was up 1.4 percent, on a 10 pound gain per cow, while cow numbers were down 2,000 head. Idaho was up 1.8 percent on 7,000 more cows and a 15-pound gain per cow. Both states had battled the bird flu.

Kansas output was up 3.0 percent, thanks to 6,000 more cows outweighing a 10-pound drop per cow. Michigan was down 0.9 percent on 3,000 fewer cows and a 5-pound drop. Minnesota was down 2.0 percent on 9,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was unchanged. New York was up 1.2 percent on a 25-pound increase per cow. Cow numbers were unchanged.

New Mexico again showed the biggest loss, down 9.1 percent, on a drop of 26,000 cows, although output per cow was up 15 pounds. South Dakota posted the biggest increase, up 7.9 percent, thanks to 16,000 more cows, though output per cow was down 5 pounds.

Oregon was down 1.9 percent on 2,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was unchanged. Pennsylvania was up 0.1 percent on a 5-pound gain per cow. Cow numbers were down 1,000 head. Texas was up 4.9 percent, thanks to 20,000 more cows and a 35-pound gain per cow.

Vermont was down 2.5 percent, on 3,000 fewer cows. Output per cow was unchanged. Washington State was off 0.2 percent on a 20-pound loss per cow. Cow numbers were up 2,000 head.

September output was higher than StoneX had expected, according to broker Dave Kurzawski in the Oct. 28 ‘Dairy Radio Now’ broadcast. Output had been negative for 13 months, he said, and the last positive number before that was in June 2023, “So we were lapping over negative numbers. It’s not going to be that hard to push that number positive.”

The surprise was the August revision of 89 million pounds which pushed the resulting total above August 2023, indicating that USDA was under reporting milk output. He said he suspected that after seeing the dairy product production numbers but “These are aged reports. The milk production data is 45 days old.”

The report impacted the future markets somewhat, he said, “As people’s perceptions became reality and that played out this week with some decent selling on the futures market,” but the October report will be more revealing. California’s data will reflect the impact of avian influenza there as well as the heat factor, he concluded. Output is expected to be down anywhere from 2 to 4.5 percent.

The USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, issued Oct. 18, mirrored milk price and production projections in the Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The Outlook also stated U.S. milk production is expected to decline in 2024 due to lower yields from aging cows, adverse weather, and limited replacements. Imports are projected to increase, while exports will remain relatively stable. Price forecast changes for wholesale dairy products will vary, leading to lower prices for Class III and IV milk.

“Milk production is expected to rise modestly in 2025 compared to the previous year’s forecast, while domestic use is projected to expand due to both increased production and lower prices. Prices for dairy products will generally decline, with Class III and IV milk prices remaining lower than in 2024,” the Outlook stated.

The Outlook reported, “As of Oct. 15th, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) was confirmed in 14 states and 319 dairy herds. However, since the beginning of October, HPAI has been detected in 76 herds, all located in California. The affected cows and herds are quarantined until they recover. Once they recover, most cows return to producing milk.”

The Daily Dairy Report’s Monica Ganley Quarterra wrote in the Oct. 18 Milk Producers Council newsletter, “Additional information is emerging about the impact of avian influenza in California dairy herds and indicates that mortality among infected animals may be higher than originally believed.”

The November Federal order Class I base milk price was announced by the USDA at $22.53 per hundredweight, down 64 cents from October, $2.78 above a year ago, and equates to $1.94 per gallon, up from $1.70 a year ago. The 11-month Class I average stands at $20.25, up from $19.15 at this time a year ago, but compares to $23.76 in 2022.

Meanwhile, CME block Cheddar which closed Friday at $1.9250 per pound, was trading Thursday morning at $1.92. The barrels, which finished Friday at $2.01, were at $1.8750 at Thursday morning’s close.

Midwestern cheesemakers report retail cheese demand remains wholly bullish, according to Dairy Market News. Customers are adding to orders and some are saying they are oversold. Multiple cheesemakers relay that customer inquiries are growing. Others say ordering patterns are in line with seasonal expectations. Cheese plant downtime will remain part of the story this week and next for scheduled maintenance.