SPRING HILL, Tenn. – January cattle numbers were down 1 percent from January 2024, according to the Jan. 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report – the agency’s first official cattle inventory report since last January (due to the July 2024 report being canceled because of USDA budget restraints).

Released Jan. 31, the report said there were 86.7 million head of cattle and calves on U.S. farms, which closely reflected pre-report estimates.

“As far as industry pre-report expectations, the USDA report was pretty much in line with those expectations,” Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee professor of agricultural and resource economics, told Farm World.

“The only place the USDA report fell outside of the range of industry analysts was the size of the 2024 calf crop,” he said. “The USDA had the calf crop at 99.9 percent of last year, while the highest industry expectation was 99 percent, with the industry average at 98.5 percent. This means there should not be much of a jolt to markets due to this report, but it is difficult to say that when cattle futures are down hard today.”

The report also said all cows and heifers that have calved, at 37.2 million head, were slightly below the 37.4 million head on Jan. 1, 2024. Beef cows, at 27.9 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.35 million head, were up slightly from the previous year. All heifers 500 pounds and over totaled 18.2 million head, 1 percent below the 18.3 million head since last January.

Moreover, beef replacement heifers, at 4.67 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.91 million head, were down 1 percent from the previous year. Other heifers, at 9.59 million head, were 1 percent below a year earlier.

Griffith said what surprised him the most about the January 2025 report was that throughout 2024, beef cattle producers did not retain heifers for beef cow replacement.

“We knew going into the report that heifers held for beef cow replacement was going to decline once again, but cattle producers were not willing to take the risk in 2024 to retain them,” he said.

Regionally, the report said in Indiana, all cattle and calves as of Jan. 1, 2025, were 810,000 head, up 3 percent from last year, according to State Statistician Nathanial Warenski. All cow numbers increased 3 percent to 380,000 head. The 2024 calf crop at 345,000 head, remained unchanged from 2023.

In Illinois, all cattle and calves totaled 1.02 million head, up 2 percent from Jan. 1, 2024. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 410,000 head, are unchanged from a year ago. The 2024 calf crop was estimated at 355,000 head, unchanged from 2023.

In Michigan, all cattle and calves in Michigan were 1.11 million head, up 2 percent from last year. Beef cow numbers decreased 1 percent to 100,000 head. Beef replacement heifers increased 9 percent to 25,000 head. Milk cows increased slightly to 440,000 head. Heifers for milk cow replacement increased 4 percent to 126,000 head. The 2024 calf crop was 400,000 head, up 3 percent from 2023.

In Ohio, all cattle and calves were estimated at 1.24 million head, unchanged from last year. Beef cow numbers decreased 2 percent to 280,000 head. Beef replacement heifers increased 9 percent to 60,000 head. Milk cows decreased 2 percent to 250,000 head. Heifers for milk cow replacement decreased 5 percent to 105,000 head. The 2024 calf crop at 480,000 head, remained unchanged from 2023.

In Kentucky, all cattle and calves were estimated at 1.85 million head. Total inventory was down 40,000 head from last year. Cows and heifers that have calved were estimated at 910,000 head, down 40,000 head from 2024. Beef cow inventory was estimated at 869,000 head, a decrease of 38,000 head from 2024. Milk cows were estimated at 41,000 head, down 2,000 head from a year ago.

In Tennessee, all cattle and calves were estimated at 1.57 million head. Total inventory was down 30,000 head from last year. Cows and heifers that have calved were estimated at 850,000 head, down 10,000 head from the 860,000 for 2024. Beef cow inventory was estimated at 826,000 head and milk cows were estimated at 24,000 head. Beef replacement heifers totaled 100,000 head, unchanged from January 2024.

When asked what his outlook was for the next six months, and what the July cattle report would likely show, Griffith said, “It appears there will be a sufficient quantity of cattle to be placed on feed the first six months of the year. I am not saying year-over-year increases, but there are still plenty of cattle to enter feedlots and not be too tight as far as inventory.

“The key to the July report, if we actually have one, will be the estimated calf crop for 2025,” he added. “That will give the industry an idea of what will be available to be placed on feed, and what will be available to retain as heifers for beef cow replacement.”