The long-awaited June planting intentions revisions were released with few surprises. U.S. corn aces are now estimated at 95.2 million, down slightly from the March intentions, but 4.61 million more than what was planted in 2024. This is the 3rd highest U.S. corn acreage estimate since 1944. Soybean plantings this year are estimated at 83.5 million, steady from the March intentions, but 4 percent fewer than last year. Total U.S. wheat acreage is estimated at 45.5 million, 150,000 more than the spring intentions number but 1 percent fewer than in 2024.

The USDA noted that when data collection for this report ended on June 16th there were still 3.63 million corn and 11.5 million soybean acres left to seed, and many of these were past the final insurance date.

June 1st U.S. quarterly stocks data was also released. For corn, the June 1st inventory was 4.64 billion bu, 7 percent less than a year ago and slightly less than trade had expected. On-farm corn stocks totaled 2.56 bbu, 16 percent less than a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 2.09 bbu, a 6 percent increase on the year. This indicates a quarterly usage of 3.5 bbu compared to 3.36 bbu last year.

Soybean stocks totaled 1.01 bbu, 4 percent more than last year and slightly more than trade expected. On-farm soybeans were down 12 percent from last year at 412 million bu, while off-farm stocks were up 18 percent from a year ago at 596 mbu. Even with this higher inventory, quarterly soybean consumption was up 3 percent from a year ago at 903 mbu.

The June 1st U.S. wheat inventory totaled 851 mbu, a 22 percent year to year increase. On-farm wheat stocks increased 32 percent from last year with 184 mbu. Off-farm wheat stocks totaled 667 mbu, a 20 percent increase on the year. Last quarter’s wheat consumption was 386 mbu, 2 percent less than a year ago.

The trade dispute between the United States and China has been a primary market topic for several weeks, but this is not the only trade partner China is having differences with. China launched an investigation into the European Union for claims of hog dumping into their market in June 2024. This investigation has now been extended for another six months, further disrupting pork trade between the two parties.

Anti-dumping charges come from exporters selling a product for less than it costs to manufacture it. Several analysts feel these charges are not the result of pricing, but rather a retaliation against the EU for placing tariffs on China’s electric vehicles.

China has seen economic improvement recently, and this is boosting commodity demand. After several months of depressed economic data, consumer spending increased by 6 percent in May. This followed a 5.1 percent increase in April. Grocery stores saw the largest increase at 14 percent. Restaurant spending saw a 6 percent growth rate in May. These are the result of economic stimulus packages of which the Chinese government has made several. This elevated spending is a factor behind China returning to the pork import market.

Hog futures have been supported by news China is taking additional measures to support the country’s pork industry. The main one of these is China wants to reduce its sow herd to 39.5 million head, 1 million fewer than the country’s previous target. At the end of April, China reported a sow inventory of 40.38 million head.

Chinese officials also want to reduce the country’s maximum hog weight and put an end to secondary feeding. Secondary feeding is when a buyer takes market weight hogs and feeds them cheap grains to push weights even higher. Hog values in China are currently at a 17-month low, and while still profitable for some of the country’s larger producers, most are suffering negative returns.

The Brazilian soybean crush group Abiove updated it soybean balance sheets estimates for that country. Abiove sees Brazil’s soybean crop at 169.7 million metric tons, steady with their last projection. The group sees soybean crush of 57.5 mmt and soy oil production at 11.5 mmt. Brazil is expected to export 108 mmt of soybeans this year, 23.6 mmt of meal, and 1.4 mmt of soy oil. These Abiove estimates are in line with other firms, including the USDA.

Global weather is starting to have more of an influence on daily price discovery. While no major weather events are currently taking place, there are more pockets of less than optimum conditions being reported. This does include the U.S., where the impact of heavy spring rains and standing water are starting to be seen in developing crops. There are also more reports of crops needing rain, soon. While these are not detrimental for production, they do not support current production estimates.

One country seeing elevated crop stress is Russia. Drought in Russia has reached a level that a state of emergency has been declared. Russia is now reporting drought in eight of its major grain production regions. Crop loss is uncertain at this time, but the declaration will allow farmers to receive support payments.

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