In a surprising move, the USDA raised the average U.S. corn yield to 188.8 bushels per acre in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand report, a large 7.7 bpa increase from July. In addition, the USDA added 1.9 million harvested acres to the July forecast. This took total U.S. corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year to 16.74 billion bu, a 13 percent increase from last year and 1.03 bbu more than the July number. Several areas of demand were elevated, adding 545 million bu to corn consumption. The net result was a 457 mbu increase to the projected 25/26 carryout, taking it to 2.11 bbu. This is a 13.3 percent stocks to use and equates to an average cash value of $3.90 per bushel. Old crop ending stocks were little changed at 1.3 bbu.

Soybean balance sheets were more friendly. The USDA cut harvested acres by 2.4 million which more than offset a 1.1 bpa increase to yield. The USDA is now using a 53.6 bpa soybean yield and a production figure of 4.29 bbu for the 25/26 marketing year. This was a 43 mbu decrease from July, and a 2 percent smaller crop than last year. The only significant change to soybean demand was a 40 mbu cut to exports, mainly from the smaller production figure. This dropped new crop carryout to 290 mbu, 20 mbu less than last month, and 60 mbu less than trade was expecting. This puts new crop stocks to use well into a rationing position at 6.7 percent and indicates an average cash value of $10.10 per bushel. The USDA also trimmed old crop balance sheets by 20 mbu, putting them at 330 mbu.

Very few changes took place to the domestic wheat balance sheets this month. The average yield was steady at 52.7 bpa and total wheat production was trimmed 2 mbu to total 1.927 bbu. Food use was lowered by 5 mbu and exports were raised 25 mbu, for a net 20 mbu reduction to ending stocks. This put the U.S. wheat carryout at 869 mbu, 15 mbu less than trade was forecasting. This is a 42.8 percent stocks to use ratio and points to an average cash value of $5.30.

Global carryover numbers were little changed and mostly reflected the alterations to U.S. balance sheets. The world corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are now estimated at 282.54 million metric tons, 5.5 mmt more than the July estimate. Global soybean ending stocks were 3 mmt below the average trade guess at 124.9 mmt. This was also 1.1 mmt less than the July estimate. World wheat carryout was just below trade expectations and last month at 260.08 mmt.

Several changes were made to the red meat balance sheets this month as well. Next year’s beef production is forecast at 25.47 billion pounds, down 350 million pounds from the July estimate. Beef exports for this year were lowered by a slim 47 million pounds, and 2026 exports were reduced by 20 million pounds. This put totals at 2.68 billion pounds and 2.54 billion pounds, respectively.

U.S. beef imports saw greater changes this month, mainly from uncertain U.S. trade relations. For 2025, beef imports were trimmed 102 million pounds to total 5.27 billion pounds. For 2026, the USDA is predicting beef imports of just 4.95 billion pounds, 400 million pounds fewer than this year.

Pork production was cut 290 million pounds for 2025 to a total of 27.75 billion. Next year’s pork production is forecast at 28.38 billion pounds, 100 million fewer than the July forecast. Pork exports were bumped up by a slight 9 million pounds for this year at 6.98 billion pounds, and 2026 exports were held at an even 7 billion pounds.

The average steer value for 2025 is now $227.06 per hundredweight, and $243.50 per cwt for 2026. Cash hogs are forecast at $69.32 per cwt for this year and $65.50 for 2026.

Corn harvest has started to get underway in the Deep South. While yield data remains limited, reports indicate they are very good. The question now is what will happen with this inventory with most analysts expecting to see farmers store as much as possible given the current market structure. We are still likely to see heavier corn movement into the supply line as farmers see better opportunities for soybeans, and may hold that crop instead. Basis values have already started to soften with the arrival of new crop bushels.

Corn harvest is also advancing in Brazil, albeit at a slow pace. Safrinha production was much larger than expected this year, and this is making the handling of the crop more difficult, slowing harvest progress. The corn crop was also left in the field to dry naturally. Even with these added bushels we may not see elevated export demand from Brazil as domestic corn consumption is rapidly increasing. In fact, some analysts feel we could see a reduction to Brazil’s corn exports this year, even with a record crop.

Soybeans have found support from firming Brazilian values. Soybeans in Brazil are the highest for this date since 2018 as even with record production, farmers in the country are not making sales. Same as in the U.S., Brazilian farmers feel soybeans are undervalued and not willing to make sales. This same attitude is being shown with newly harvested safrinha bushels. This is the primary reason demand for U.S. corn has not taken a seasonal downturn this year.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.