STILLWATER, Okla. – The U.S. cattle herd is the smallest in 75 years according to the Jan. 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report . This was despite an increase in replacement heifers, according to the report released Jan. 30.

“The beef cow inventory now stands at 27.61 million head, the smallest since 1951,” said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist in Stillwater, Okla., in his Feb. 2 analysis of the report. “Since the cyclical peak in 2019, at 31.64 million, the beef cow herd has decreased 4.03 million, a total seven-year drop of 12.7 percent.  

Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee professor of agricultural and resource economics, told Farm World, “It is the smallest beef cow herd since 1961 (65 years). It is the smallest all cattle and calves since 1951 (75 years).”

He said there are several theories of why producers have been slow to grow the cattle herd: “Some say it is the aging cattle producer, and some add that urban sprawl and development is taking land out of production, and not allowing for herd expansion. I think the answer is easier than that. There have been some regions that are trying to expand, and other regions that haven’t expanded.” 

He said fall drought in many portions of the country  also may have contributed to the lower numbers. “This coincides with the time period when cattle producers wean the calf crop, and thus make heifer retention decisions. Thus, a producer experiencing drought is not likely to retain heifers for replacement, and that is because environmental and climatic challenges can outweigh economic incentive of higher cattle prices.”

John Nalivka, Sterling Marketing, Inc., president in Vale, Ore., said in his Jan. 31 analysis that heifer slaughter during 2025, at 9.5 million, was down 7 percent from the prior year, but still represented 52 percent of the heifers weighing over 500 pounds on Jan. 1, 2025. 

“In 2024, the industry slaughtered 56 percent of the Jan. 1 heifers weighing over 500 pounds,” he said. “When the industry was retaining heifers to build herds, the percentage of heifers weighing over 500 pounds that were slaughtered ranged from 39 percent to 49 percent.

“From 2015-2018 when producers began aggressively building herds, the average number of heifers that were identified as replacements on the Jan. 1 inventory was 6.2 million, or an average heifer retention rate of 21 percent,” he added.

He said only time will tell if the USDA’s Cattle Inventory is on track, adding that one verification will be cattle slaughter, which is an actual number that packers report to the USDA. 

He added that numbers will continue to tighten, and when coupled with continued strong demand for beef, will support the market at levels at – and likely above – the market peak seen during third-quarter 2025. 

Griffith said, “I think there is a lot said about this being the smallest cattle inventory in 75 years, but these are also the biggest cattle in 75 years. We are still producing a lot of beef with fewer cattle,” he added. “The smaller calf crop in 2025 and the expectation of an even smaller calf crop in 2026 may take the cake, because it will continue to support cattle prices in 2026.”

Looking ahead, Grant Dewell, Iowa State University associate professor of veterinary medicine and extension beef veterinarian, who also holds a master’s degree in agricultural economics, said, “Heifer retention was up slightly, indicating we may see some growth in 2027 or 2028. It is not much, but maybe a glimmer of hope we are ready to turn the cycle up.

“Cattle on Feed numbers were down 3 percent (from 2025), so inventories remain tight and prices for feeder calves should remain strong for several more years,” he added. “Expect any rebuilding that does occur to be slow as cost remains high and the future uncertain. Most producers still remember how fast the market fell 10 years ago, and producers seem more cautious this time around.”