Increasing cow numbers and more milk per cow kept U.S. bulk tanks filled in the first month of the new year. January milk production hit 19.810 billion pounds, up 3.2 percent from January 2025. The 24-state total, at 19.058 billion, was up 3.4 percent. Fat and protein content were both up from last year, which pushed component adjusted production in the 50 states up 4.2 percent from last year, according to StoneX.

Production for all of 2025 was officially announced at a record 232 billion pounds in the 50 states, up 2.6 percent from 2024, and up 9 percent from 2016. You’ll recall that output was down in both 2023 and 2024. Cow numbers in 2025 totaled 9.5 million head, up 153,000 from 2024, and up 1.8 percent from 2016. Output per cow averaged 24,390 pounds, up 218 pounds from 2024. That average annual rate has increased 7.2 percent from 2016, according to USDA.

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report projects 2026 output to hit 234.5 billion pounds, which would be up 2.8 billion or 1.2 percent from 2025.

December production was revised down 39 million pounds to 19.529 billion, 4.2 percent above a year ago, instead of the 4.4 percent originally reported. The 24-state total was revised down 36 million pounds, to 18.787 billion, up 4.4 percent instead of 4.7 percent.

January cows numbered 9.580 million, up 14,000 from the December count, which was revised down 1,000 head, but up 189,000 or 2.0 percent from Jan. 2025. The 24-state count was 9.154 million, up 15,000 from the December total, which was revised up 1,000 head, but is 200,000 head or 2.2 percent above a year ago.

January output per cow averaged 2,068 pounds in the 50 states, up 24 pounds or 1.2 percent from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 2,082 pounds, was up 24 pounds or 1.2 percent from 2025. The December average was revised down 3 pounds in the 50 States and 4 pounds in the 24 states.

StoneX says, “It’s pretty clear that the most profitable part of the dairy farm right now are the calves. Farmers will hold onto all the cows that they can get bred which should keep cow numbers steady to a little higher but the record pace of expansion that we saw in 2025 is slowing down. The collapse in milk prices in fourth quarter sent a clear signal to the farmers to cut milk production and they’ve made adjustments in rations to save some cash which have probably cut the fat content in the milk and slowed the growth in milk production per cow. Milk production growth will likely continue to slow as we move through the year and face tougher and tougher year-over-year comparisons.”

Meanwhile, the latest Livestock Slaughter report showed an estimated 246,800 head of dairy cows were slaughtered under federal inspection in January 2026, down 1,600 head from December 2025, and 1,000 head or 0.4 percent below January 2025.

U.S. butter stocks jumped in January but were still well below those a year ago. The USDA’s latest Cold Storage report showed January stocks had grown to 215.4 million pounds, up 27.8 million or 14.8 percent from December, but were a whopping 45.6 million or 17.5 percent below January 2025. The December total was revised 11.6 million pounds lower from last month’s report.

American type cheese stocks slipped to 792.3 million pounds, down 1.5 million or 0.2 percent from the December level, which was revised up 4 million pounds. And was down 360,000 pounds, virtually unchanged, from a year ago.

The “other” cheese holdings crept to 564.8 million pounds, up 3.4 million pounds or 0.6 percent from December, and up 2.4 million pounds or 0.4 percent above a year ago.

That put the total cheese inventory at 1.380 billion pounds, up 2.4 million or 0.2 percent from December, and up 2.2 million or 0.2 percent from a year ago. December’s total was revised up 5.6 million pounds from last month’s data. The report is seen as bullish on butter and slightly bullish for cheese. U.S. exports and good domestic butter demand is helping keep product out of the freezer.

The United States is truly blessed wThe National Milk Producers Federation points out, “In the decades-old saga of Real Milk versus Plant-based Imposters, Team Real had another good year in 2025. While retail sales of fluid milk stayed steady, sales of imitators made from almonds, oats and other items fell 6 percent to 358.4 million gallons last year, according to Circana data. Since its peak in 2021, plant-based sales have declined by nearly one-fifth; last year’s drop of 6 percent was the steepest of all four.

“As a result, for the fourth straight year, good-old-fashioned fluid milk’s market share rose compared to plant-based beverages, holding 90.7 percent of the combined dairy-and-alternative-beverage market in 2025. That’s the fourth straight annual increase in milk’s market share, and it’s up from 89.4 percent in 2021,” says NMPF.

“Slowly, but surely, consumers are choosing the better value in nutrition, in price, and in trustworthiness,” says NMPF. “In a rational world, real milk and plant-based beverages wouldn’t even be in the same category as their nutritional profiles are radically different, and their ingredients bear no similarity. Decades of plant-based marketing as dairy alternatives have made their mark; but despite that, dairy remains dominant. That’s a tribute to milk’s irreplaceable nutritional package and to consumers who dig past the hype and make the choices that best fit their nutritional needs,” NMPF stated.

“Not that plant-based beverages are ever going away, far from it,” warns NMPF.  “Even though beverages made from almonds, which is 63 percent of the plant-based market, fell by 8.6 percent last year, and soy fell 8.3 percent, oat-based beverages rose 1.8 percent, as it’s become a solid-though-distant second place to almonds.

“People have their reasons to choose ultra-processed beverages of inferior nutritional value. But the decline of plant-based beverages fits within several trends of the 2020s, from the embrace of real food to renewed appreciation of dairy’s nutritional benefits, especially at fuller-fat levels, to consumers who are more critical of what they consume,” NMPF argues.

“Confusion remains in the marketplace over the inferior nutrition of plant-based versus true dairy beverages; that’s shown by surveys and studies. Enforcing federal standards of identity that define milk as an animal product and reserving dairy terms on labels only for true dairy beverages would further these positive marketplace trends. Nutrition science has spoken, and consumer behavior is changing too. Slowly but surely, milk’s integrity is carrying the day, and real dairy is winning. Often, it just takes time,” NMPF concludes.

CME dairy prices will finish the month higher than they were on Feb. 2. The Cheddar blocks saw daily gains this week, marching to $1.6025 per pound Wednesday, highest since Nov. 11, 2025.