As expected, the March WASDE report contained very few changes to balance sheets. The U.S. corn carryout was left unchanged this month at 2.127 billion bu as no changes took place to either side of the ledger. This held the U.S. stocks to use on corn at 12.9 percent and average cash value at $4.10 per bushel. We did see a slight increase to the global corn carryout estimate, going from 288.98 million metric tons to a current 292.75 mmt.

We did see a few changes to soybean demand numbers, but ending stocks still held steady. The USDA increased soybean crush by 5 million bu this month but also increased soybean imports an equal amount. This kept ending stocks at 350 mbu, an 8.2 percent stocks-to-use ratio. This held the average cash value estimate at $10.20 per bushel. The world soybean carryover is now estimated at 125.31 mmt, a 200,000 mt reduction from February.

No changes were made to domestic wheat balance sheets this month either. This held ending stocks at 931 mbu, which is a 45.9 percent stocks to use. The USDA raised the average cash value of wheat to $4.95, a 5-cent increase from February. The world wheat carryout came in 550,000 mt less than last month at 276.96 mmt.

Beef and pork balance sheets were also little changed this month. This year’s beef production is now estimated at 25.81 billion pounds, a decrease of 110 million pounds from February. Beef exports are forecast at 2.4 billion pounds, down 30 million pounds from a month ago. Beef imports are projected at 5.675 billion pounds, a month-to-month increase of 100 million pounds. The average steer value is now estimated at $242.00 a hundredweight, up $1.75 from February.

Yearly pork production was left unchanged this month at 28.28 billion pounds. Pork exports were bumped up 50 million pounds to a total of 7.185 billion pounds. The average U.S. hog value was raised $1.25 a hundredweight to $70.25.

Several global trade deals are being made, and many of these exclude the United States. A top one is China announcing it will be suspending its 100 percent tariff on Canadian canola though the end of 2026. China and Canada have been in a trade war stemming from disputes over electronic vehicles. This led to China launching an anti-dumping investigation on Canada’s canola, which was now been resolved. Another trade deal is between Brazil and Mexico with Mexico agreeing to import Brazil’s beef. Both are markets the U.S. had hoped to expand trade with itself.

A situation is developing in the U.S. beef industry that is elevating consumer costs. U.S. beef is currently grading at 89 percent or greater as choice. This is record high and is cutting into an already strained supply of select grade beef. Select cuts are what is usually used for ground beef, along with South American imports. These imports have been greatly impacted by tariffs, and while they are starting to resume, they are still not enough to satisfy demand. As a result, more choice or better beef is being ground, adding even more premium to an already inflated retail cost.

The question now is what impact this may have on the summer grilling season, especially with softer U.S. labor market and economic outlooks.

Changes are taking place in the Chinese hog industry that bear monitoring. The Chinese government has long stated it needed to streamline its hog industry and has forced feeders to cull their herds. Even with feeders making sizable reductions to hog herds, the country is still over-producing pork. China produced 15.7 million metric tons of pork in the 4th quarter of 2025, the highest volume since 2018. This caused pork values to drop 14.6 percent in December alone. China’s consumers have started to add more beef to their diets, causing pork stocks to build even with a decline in hog numbers.

Stats Canada released its 2026 planting estimates with numbers differing from trade expectations. Stats is projecting total Canadian wheat acreage of 26.74 million acres, 300,000 more than the average trade guess, but below last year’s 27.48 million acres. Canola acreage is estimated at 21.84 million, 500,000 fewer than the average guess. Stats is predicting a soybean crop of 5.89 million acres, up 1.9 percent from a year ago, and corn plantings are expected to increase by 1.7 percent to 3.85 million.

The U.S. acreage debate is becoming more of a market topic, especially following the start of the U.S./Iran war that is impacting fertilizer values. The main one is urea with values spiking over $100.00 a ton following the conflict start. Urea is now nearly $700 a ton at the U.S. Gulf and making corn much less attractive for uncommitted acres. The price spread between corn and soybeans is also narrowing and is now at 2.34:1, down from 2.4:1. While this was not a significant shift, it is a trend that may continue and make soybeans even more attractive.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.