CHAMPAIGN, Ill. – What would happen if the U.S. placed a ban on streptomycin, a commonly used antibiotic for treating fire blight in apple and pear orchards?

Across the pond, the European Union has implemented strict bans on the use of streptomycin and oxytetracycline for the control of fire blight in pome fruit production. In November 2025, a group of organizations including public health and farm worker groups filed a legal petition with the U.S. EPA calling for the end of antibiotics being sprayed on food crops. These groups say that antibiotic use in food production can lead to superbug bacteria that are antibiotic resistant, impacting human health.

Researchers are curious about how such a ban would affect apple growers, although there are currently no restrictions on using antibiotics in fruit orchards in the U.S. A new study from researchers at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign considered how growers respond to the uncertainty of a potential antibiotics ban. While the study presented a hypothetical scenario, Shadi Atallah, associate professor in the College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences at the university, said the study is not an esoteric exercise.

“You can think about how a new government comes in place and then says, ‘We are going to ban herbicides.’ This is what happened with the MAHA (Make America Healthy Again) movement,” Attalah said. “That uncertainty is real for farmers…a government might signal that they want to do something and might even get close to doing it. We wanted to look at the extremes of what if a farmer listens or what if farmers don’t listen (to news of a potential ban)? Who is worse off or better off?”

Khashi Ghorbani, a doctoral candidate in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the university, and Attalah developed a dynamic model that evaluates growers’ decisions regarding antibiotic use if a ban looms in the distance. Two types of growers were identified: a proactive grower, or one who takes the ban seriously and begins to make changes in their strategy, and the business-as-usual grower, or one who doesn’t make changes in response to a potential ban.

Proactive growers are likely to increase application of antibiotics in response to a potential ban, a well-known story in economics called a green paradox, Ghorbani said. Growers will rush to apply more antibiotics to maximize their efficiency before the product is no longer available.

“What if the government fails (to enforce the ban)? We find that those proactive growers are now doing much worse because they have depleted the effectiveness of that management method and need to reach toward less effective management,” Attalah said.

In the scenario where the government fails to enforce the ban, the business-as-usual grower will be better off as they continued to apply antibiotics at the optimal level, and the management practice still works for their crop. The study also found that growers of lower value apple varieties like Gala and Fuji are more vulnerable to policy uncertainty, while varieties like Honeycrisp are less affected.

Farmers can use this information politically. Attalah calls for farmers to use this research to talk to representatives and policymakers to show how “their flip-flopping is affecting farmer livelihoods in ways that are uneven.” Politicians listen to farmers, and presenting this type of research could be used as a request for policymaking to be thoughtful, he added.

Ghorbani agreed, adding that decision making in the face of uncertainty is made more difficult for farmers when administrations cycle. For example, while banning certain management practices might be the priority of one administration, the next administration could come in and reverse those same bans. Clarifying the negative impacts for farmers might be something that resonates with policymakers, he said.

“The only solution is to have a situation where policy is science driven regardless of partisanship,” Attalah said.

There are still steps farmers can take to be prepared in the face of the unknown.

“I’m a big fan of Extension workers and there’s a good chance that Extension educators, specialists, and economists would talk about these issues and be transparent about the potential impacts. That’s one good way to go about it – trying to make those connections as much as possible with the Extension offices of universities supporting those growers,” Ghorbani said. “Be up to date with policy. It’s tricky depending on which source you get your news, so try to find resources that bridge the gap between the news and farmers.”

Collaborating with other farmers and participating in farmer-led science are also helpful, Attalah added.