A survey conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows 70 percent of U.S. farmers claim fertilizer costs have risen to a point where they will not be able to afford all this season’s needs. Farmers in the Midwest had the most coverage, but even there, 48 percent of producers cannot afford all the year’s needs. Farmers in Southern States are the worst off with 80 percent unable to purchase this year’s fertilizer needs.

There are hopes that prices will fall, allowing for applications later in the season. Given the fact this will be when South America is drawing down needs, prices may not recede at all, and could be even higher. The White House is predicting elevated energy costs through November, indicating little relief for fertilizer values either, particularly nitrogen products.

Even farmers that had their price locked in on needs may not see delivery of all products booked due to supply line disruptions. More farmers are also reporting that they will likely apply one pass of fertilizer this year as additional applications may be cost prohibitive. Record diesel costs are also going to impact this year’s tillage programs. This alone would jeopardize U.S. yields regardless of growing season weather.

The country seeing the most impact from input costs is Australia. Sources in Australia claim farmers will cut back on nitrogen demanding crops this year, with wheat likely seeing the biggest reduction. Australia is also expected to see a smaller canola crop this year with 2026/27 production estimated at 6.7 million mt. This is a full 1 mmt less than the 2025/26 crop. Australia is forecast to export 4.7 mmt of canola this year, down 16 percent from a year ago. What may be a greater concern in Australia is a potential diesel fuel shortage that may cut acreage if farmers cannot get to fields.

China’s customs department listed March soybean imports of 4.02 million metric tons. This was a 14.9 percent increase from March 2025, but well beneath the 6.5 mmt trade was expected. The disruptions to Brazil exports due to contamination concerns was the primary factor for the low import total.

The Brazilian firm CONAB recently released its April crop update. For soybeans, CONAB is now predicting a crop of 179.15 mmt, up from the March estimate for 177.85 mmt. CONAB also bumped its export forecast from 114.39 mmt to 115.4 mmt, and ending stock from 9.538 mmt to 9.96 mmt.

Brazil’s corn crop estimate was also increased to 139.57 mmt, up 1.3 mmt from March. Corn exports were left unchanged at 46.5 mmt, but ending stocks rose from 11.595 mmt to 12.813 mmt.

Brazil’s wheat crop was lowered from 6.9 mmt in March to 6.616 mmt this month. Brazil’s 2026 wheat imports are forecast at 6.65 mmt, also down from the 6.772 mmt in March. Brazil’s wheat carryout is now estimated at 1.73 mmt, down from last month’s 2.153 mmt.

The USDA is using crops of 180 mmt on soybeans, 132 mmt for corn, and 7.78 mmt on wheat in balance sheets.

One of the most overlooked numbers in the market right now is the global corn carryout estimate. The USDA is currently predicting world ending stocks of corn to total 294.8 mmt this year. While an adequate volume, it is down from recent years. Corn carryover at the end of the 2024/25 marketing year was 296.3 mmt, and at the end of 2023/24 it was 315 mbu. Added demand from the ethanol industry is the primary cause for the elevated consumption and lower ending stocks. These numbers indicate how important it is to see large world corn crops in today’s market environment.

Drought conditions continue to impact much of the United States. Through April 14, the only region of the U.S. not seeing drought stress was the Great Lakes. The remainder of the United States is seeing drought conditions, including nearly the entire western half of the country. The entire Southeast is also seeing drought conditions, along with the Delta region. The greatest concern is in winter wheat, with 68 percent of the crop drought stressed. This is twice the area from last year. U.S. pasture conditions are also stressed with 63 percent in drought compared to 38 percent last year. Corn and soybean regions are better off at 26 percent and 29 percent in drought, respectively.

The Brazilian firm Datagro has released its ethanol production estimates for the country for the 2026/27 marketing year. Total Brazilian production is forecast at 41.6 billion liters, an increase of 5.3 billion liters from the 2025/26 year. Datagro numbers indicate Brazil will produce 28.9 billion liters of sugar-based ethanol, up 2.3 billion from last year. Corn based ethanol is forecast at 12.8 billion liters, a 3 billion year to year increase.

Chinese pork production to start 2026 was well above the start of 2025. Chinese pork production for the first quarter of 2026 was up 4.2 percent from a year ago as herd reduction efforts continue. Hog slaughter to start 2026 totaled 200.26 million head, an increase of 2.8 percent from the same period last year. Even with this increase, China’s hog inventory at the end of the quarter was 1.5 percent greater than last year at 423.58 million head. Poultry production in China was also up 9.3 percent over the past three months. China did see its beef production decline by 1.4 percent though as down-sizing in the nation’s cattle herd slowed.

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