URBANA, Ill. – University of Illinois agricultural economists issued final projections for fall ARC (Agricultural Risk Coverage) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage) payments based on newly released USDA 2025 county yield estimates. The U of I economists said U.S. farmers can expect to see average payments of $58 per acre for corn, $29 per acre for soybeans and $47 per acre for wheat. The prices reflect changes affecting payment determinations based on directives within the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of July 4, 2025, according to U of I economist Nick Paulson, of farmdocDAILY.

“PLC reference prices were increased, the ARC revenue guarantee was increased and the payment band was widened. These changes increase the likelihood and potential size of payments for both programs compared to their previous designs under the 2018 Farm Bill. In addition, for 2025, producers will receive the larger of the two program payments,” Paulson explained, during a “five-minute farmdoc” video and podcast explaining the new payment triggers and parameters.

Paulson stressed that the farmdoc team’s payment estimates were predictions based on the latest information available as of May 14, when the team issued its report, “2025 ARC/PLC Final Estimates” (Monaco, H., G. Schnitkey, N. Paulson, J. Coppess and C. Zulauf).

While 2025 ARC and PLC payment estimates are based on National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) yields and market yield average (MYA) prices from the May 12 USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, ARC and PLC estimates could fluctuate because the number of counties with yields reported by NASS was lower than the number of counties for which the Farm Service Agency (FSA) has base acres enrolled in ARC for 2025.

“To estimate yields for other counties, yields were interpolated based on neighbor(ing) counties when most of the state had yields reported. These were further adjusted to closely match NASS state yield estimates. Further, given that NASS yields are not the final ones used by the FSA, there continues to be some uncertainty with regards to final values,” the farmdoc team noted.

The economists found that while corn payments per base acre will average around $58, payments for corn will be larger in the Mid-Atlantic-Northeast, parts of Iowa, southern Minnesota and the Pacific Northwest. Nationwide average projected soybeans payments are $29 per base acre, though soybean payments were also larger for the Mid-Atlantic-Northeast region and parts of the upper plains.

“The regions with larger estimated payments for corn and soybean base acres tended to be in areas where the ARC payment exceeds the PLC payment due to yields being expected to be poor relative to ARC benchmark yields,” they stated, adding that actual county yields used in the Title 1 commodity program will be released by FSA in June. “The MYA prices for corn and soybeans will be determined once the marketing year concludes in August, while the wheat MYA will be determined after the marketing year ends in May. Final payments will be determined by the FSA yields and final MYA prices, with payments being made in October.”

According to a USDA overview, the ARC Program is an income support program that provides payments when actual crop revenue declines below a specified guaranteed level, while PLC provides income support payments when the effective price for a covered commodity falls below its effective reference price. Wheat, oats, barley, corn, grain sorghum, long grain rice, medium/short grain rice, temperate japonica rice, seed cotton, dry peas, lentils, large and small chickpeas, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower seed, canola, flaxseed, mustard seed, rapeseed, safflower, crambe and sesame seed comprise the 22 crops covered by ARC-PLC.

Analyst: 2026 PLC projections a “stark story”

In his May 19 article for Farm CPA Report, “How 2026 and 2025 PLC Payments Compare for Major Crops,” CPA Paul Neiffer said that his analysis of estimated PLC payment projections for both the 2025 and 2026 crop years “tell a (comparatively) stark story.” Based on current USDA MYA price estimates and updated base acres reflecting the OBBBA changes, total estimated national PLC payments for the top six crops are projected to fall from approximately $9.68 billion in 2025 down to $2.71 billion in 2026 – a reduction of nearly $6.97 billion, or 72 percent, according to Neiffer.

“However, unlike 2025 where farmers automatically got paid the higher of ARC or PLC, for the 2026 crop year farmers will need to make an election between ARC and PLC. This analysis simply shows how PLC payments would look if farmers elected 100 percent PLC. We know this will not happen, but the analysis does show how payments would drop if that automatic top-up had continued for 2026. It is worth noting that other crops also receive PLC payments, but they are not as material as these six and follow a similar downward trend.”

2025 crop year rules will allow more farmer-owners to receive farm program payments, according to Neiffer. “LLCs or any entity taxed as a partnership or an S-corporation, those entities are going to be treated the same as a general partnership. If you had four equal owners, you get four payment limits instead of one payment limit,” he said.