By DOUG SCHMITZ 

Iowa Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The USDA recently released its first outlook for the 2026–2027 crop year in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, projecting the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1972.

According to the report, total U.S. wheat production is estimated to fall more than 20 percent from the 2025-2026 crop year, declining from nearly 2 billion bushels to about 1.6 billion bushels; winter wheat production is expected to drop 25 percent to just more than 1 billion bushels.

“Unfortunately, U.S. wheat growers are not surprised by this report,” said Sam Kieffer, National Association of Wheat Growers CEO, in a May 12 media statement. “Across the country, farmers continue to face stubbornly high input costs, ongoing uncertainty in global markets, and the continual challenge of achieving profitability on the farm.

“As a result, many farmers are making the difficult decision to plant fewer wheat acres,” he added. “In addition, much of wheat country is experiencing significant drought.”

The report said total U.S. 2026-27 wheat domestic use is lower on reduced feed and residual use, reflecting smaller supplies, while food use is unchanged from 2025-26 at 960 million bushels. Exports are projected at 775 million bushels on reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices, down 135 million from revised 2025-26 exports.

The report added that the global wheat outlook for 2026-27 is for lower supplies, marginally lower consumption, reduced trade and decreased ending stocks, compared with 2025-26. Global production is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year’s record 843.8 million. A large share of the lower production is from all the major wheat exporting countries. The largest reductions are for the United States, the EU, Argentina and Australia, the report said.

Moreover, projected 2026-27 wheat world consumption is slightly lower at 823.2 million tons on less feed and residual use, mostly on reduced production for most of the leading global wheat producers, the report said. World food, seed and industrial use is higher, with India having the largest increase on continued population growth and ample domestic wheat supplies used in its government’s Public Distribution System.

According to the USDA, India’s Public Distribution System is the country’s flagship food-based social safety net and largest food aid program. It is a government-sponsored chain of fair-price shops (ration shops) that distributes staple food grains and essential commodities at heavily subsidized prices to low-income households.

The report added that global wheat trade is projected at 211.7 million tons, a decline of 12 million from 2025-26 primarily on reduced import demand from the North Africa and Middle East regions on significant production increases for several countries.

The report said Russia remains the largest exporter, followed by the EU, Canada, Australia and the United States. Projected ending stocks for 2026-27 are down 4.2 million tons from 2025-26 to 275 million, with the largest reduction for the United States.

Jason Head, Kentucky Small Grain Growers Association president, told Farm World, “It’s getting harder and harder to be a wheat farmer in today’s world. Wheat acres have been trending downward pretty heavily for the last 10 years in Kentucky, and it’s difficult to combat that with how our farm input costs are behaving right now, and with all the trade disruptions we’ve experienced.”

He said fertilizer and fuel prices are a big part of that, and although wheat farmers are encouraged by efforts like the announced fertilizer pricing investigation from the Federal Trade Commission, “farms are fighting for profitability tooth and nail this year.”

“That’s why we urge Congress and the Trump Administration to examine every opportunity to control and reduce rising farm input costs,” he said. “It’s also critical to advance the Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, which would provide greater certainty to farmers, and expand market opportunities for our wheat industry.”