We are starting to see more of the seasonal shift in the market from old crop to new crop. This is not uncommon as the old crop year comes to an end and the U.S. harvest approaches. Not only are futures impacted by this, but so are basis and spreads, even processing margins. Board crush on soybeans has fallen considerably in recent weeks and is now holding near $2.50 per bushel. While still a very attractive return, it is over $1 off its peak. Spot crush margin has now receded to a point where it is nearly equal to new crop. This once again shows how old crop values tend to gravitate toward new crop as the marketing year progresses.

The latest Census export data for the month of June was mixed. Corn exports for the month totaled a record 7.93 million metric tons, an increase of 9.3 percent from last June. Distiller grain exports were an 11-year high at 1.09 mmt. Ethanol exports in June were record large at 206.06 million gallons, an 8.65 percent increase from June 2025. Soybean exports were a 4-year high at 1.9 mmt, although this was a 14.35 percent decline from May. June soy meal exports were a monthly record at 1.5 mmt. Wheat exports in June were 3-year low at 1.47 mmt, an 8.5 percent decline from May.

June beef exports totaled 199 million pounds, a 6-year low for June but the highest volume in three months. Pork exports were down 3.2 percent from 2025 and down 10.3 percent from May with 540.19 million pounds.

The escalation in fighting between Ukraine and Russia has all but shut down Russian grain flow. Nearly all ports in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are now closed for loading as Ukraine continues to attack both terminals and vessels in the region. As a result, Russia has now turned to the Baltic states for export loadings.

While this has been favorable for global grain values, it has generated concerns over rising food values. Both wheat and corn have rallied on the lack of Russian competition, and this has started to dive up some food costs as well. Nearly 25 percent of the world’s grain needs come from the Black Sea, and this has now been halted. When added to high-priced beef, this only strains a global consumer even more.

May biofuel manufacturing capacity in the United States totaled 4.97 billion gallons. This led to a record soy oil consumption total of 1.43 billion pounds, a year-to-year increase of 17.1 percent from last year. Biodiesel consumed 747 million pounds, an increase of 8.9 percent from 2025. Renewable diesel consumption was 687 million pounds, an increase of 28 percent. Both of these consumption totals were record high.

Soybean crush for the month of June 2026 was as expected by trade. A total of 218 million bu of soybeans were crushed in the month, 5 mbu more than in May and 21 mbu more than June 2025. Crude soy oil production totaled 2.53 billion pounds, up 3 percent from May and 8 percent more than June 2025. End of June soy oil stocks totaled 2.09 billion pounds versus the 2.32-billion-pound estimate. Meal stocks at the end of June were 433,277 tons, down 4,000 tons from May. Year-to-date crush now totals 2.216 billion bu, an increase of 8.5 percent from last year. This is slightly higher than the USDA estimate for the year.

Ethanol demand for corn in June was as expected as well. A total of 467 mbu of corn was consumed for ethanol in the month, 1 percent less than in May, but 4 percent more than June 2025. Dried distiller grain production totaled 1.82 million tons, up 3 percent from May and down 3 percent from last June.

An interesting situation is starting to develop in the Panama Canal. The El Nino weather pattern has brought drought conditions to several regions of the globe, and one getting more attention is the Panama Canal. Drought has dropped water levels far enough at the canal that draft restrictions have been enacted and are starting to impact global trade. As of July 24th, a draft restriction of 49 feet was placed, and this is expected to be lowered in August. Officials have also suspended some booking slots, lowering daily traffic from 36 vessels to 34. As the El Nino strengthens these low water levels will become more of an issue.

Crop loss in the European Union is becoming more of a market concern, primarily on corn. Total EU corn production is now forecast at 48 million metric tons, a 20 percent decline from last year. Record heat and drought conditions have caused this loss. One of the countries impacted the most has been France with a projected crop of 6.9 mmt, the smallest crop in fifty years. Other members are seeing even greater losses such as Germany and Spain.

Brazil has started to load out sorghum for China. China imported a small volume of Brazil sorghum in January to see if it made it through inspections. China now has 407,000 metric tons of sorghum enroute to help compensate for grain losses in that country. Chinese importers favor sorghum over corn as the import safety procedures are less strict, mainly due to corn’s GMO traits. While this dampens hopes for U.S. corn exports to China, it does create demand in the global market regardless of who the source is.

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