A few noticeable changes were made to U.S. corn balance sheets this month. Old crop exports were bumped up 25 million bu, which was partially offset with a 2 mbu increase in imports. The result was a 23 mbu reduction to old crop ending stocks, taking them to 1.92 billion bu. The projected U.S. corn yield was lowered to 178.5 bushels per acre for a crop of 15.8 bbu. This was a 2.2-bushel reduction to yield and 213 mbu less production. Feed and residual demand were cut by 150 mbu to offset the smaller crop. Even so, new crop ending stocks retreated to 1.567 bbu and stocks to use to 9.7 percent, which is a rationing level. The average cash corn value was raised 30 cents per bushel to $4.80.

On soybeans, no changes were made to old crop balance sheets, holding carryout at 325 mbu. The USDA made a slight increase to yield, putting it at 52.8 bpa compared to 52.7 bpa in August. Harvested acres also saw a slight increase, adding 16 mbu to the U.S. crop, putting it at 4.535 bbu. On the demand side the USDA raised new crop crush 25 mbu and seed demand 1 mbu. The end result was a 10 mbu reduction to new crop ending stocks to 310 mbu, which was 10 mbu above the average trade guess. This carryout level is a 6.8 percent stocks to use and is in a rationing position. The USDA raised its average cash price projection on soybeans by 60 cents to an even $12 per bushel.

No changes were made to U.S. wheat balance sheets this month, holding ending stocks at 717 mbu and stocks to use at 38.2 percent. Even so, the USDA raised its cash price projection on wheat by 20 cents per bushel to an average of $6.40, mainly from higher corn projections and geopolitical risk.

On the global side, corn ending stocks came in as expected at 272.1 million metric tons. Soybean ending stocks were slightly above the average estimate but down slightly from last month at 124.02 mmt from an increase in U.S. consumption. The biggest question to soybean production is in Brazil, with the USDA predicting a 186 mmt crop while most private analysts are closer to 180 mmt. World wheat carryout was up slightly to 276.29 mmt. The biggest change in wheat balance sheets was an increase in projected feed usage and few Black Sea exports.

Beef production for 2026 is now estimated at 24.88 billion pounds, down 90 million from last month. Beef production for 2027 is now estimated at 24.84 billion pounds, down 150 million. Beef exports were raised by 10 million pounds for each year to 2.34 billion for 2026 and 2.35 billion for 2027. Beef imports are projected at 6.26 billion pounds this year and 6.26 billion next year. Average steer values are $237.25 per hundredweight for 2026 and $237.50 per cwt for 2027.

For pork, 2026 production is now estimated at 27.77 million pounds, down 110 million, and for 2027 it is 28.07 million pounds, down 70 million. Pork exports were trimmed 65 million pounds for this year to 7.11 billion, and for 2027 exports are estimated at 7.19 billion pounds, down 150 million. The average hog value projection is $64.82 a cwt for 2026 and $63.75 per cwt for 2027.

An underlying source of market support is new crop demand, especially on soybeans. U.S. soybean sales for the 2026/27 marketing year already total 16.28 million metric tons, over twice last year’s sales pace. Soybean sales are also already 36 percent of total projections for the year. Analysts are stepping forward to claim soybean sales are becoming front-loaded and will drop as the year progresses. The bulk of U.S. soybean sales are to China. New crop corn demand is also building with sales at 14.44 mmt, a 31 percent increase from a year ago. Corn sales are now 17.4 percent of the USDA forecast. Wheat bookings are down 31 percent from last year at 8.66 mmt and are 41 percent of yearly expectations.

China’s appetite for soybeans mixed. August soybean imports totaled 12.14 mmt, an increase of 5.7 percent from July. August soybean imports were down 1 percent from 2025, however. Year-to-date Chinese soybean imports total 74.11 mmt, an increase of 1.1 percent from last year. There are indications China’s soybean demand may be peaking as livestock numbers decline and feeders become more efficient.

Not only is harvest ramping up in the United States, but in Ukraine also. A reported 31.94 mmt of grain has been harvested in Ukraine this season, including 24.9 mmt of wheat, 6.4 mmt of barely, and 43,000 mt of corn. Ukraine has also harvested 3.83 mmt of rapeseed and 79,000 mt of soybeans this year. The question now is if Ukraine can find a route for exporting these crops.

Weather remains supportive for the market, mainly the forecasts for El Nino to last well into 2027. Forecasters now have the odds of an El Nino lasting through the winter months and into 2027 at 90 percent. They add there is a 75 percent chance the El Nino will be a major event and the strongest the world has ever seen. Not only will this impact the entire South American production season, but the start of the U.S. growing season, and potentially the entire crop cycle. This is keeping risk premium in the market.

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