Larger than expected changes took place to the domestic corn balance sheets in the October supply and demand report. The average U.S. corn yield was raised from 178.5 bushels per acre in September to 181.2 bpa this month. This took total crop size from 15.8 billion bu to 16.03 bbu. While this is a sizable increase, this crop is still 300 million bu less than expected new crop usage. Corn carryout is now estimated at a more comfortable 1.85 bbu versus 1.57 bbu last month. This increase in U.S. corn production took global ending stocks from 272.1 million metric tons in September to 280.4 mmt this month. The USDA trimmed their average cash projection on corn by 10 cents this month, putting it at $4.70.

Fewer changes were seen in U.S. soybean balance sheets. Yield was bumped slightly from 52.8 bpa in September to 53.1 bpa this month. This was enough to raise the crop size from 4.54 bbu to 4.56 bbu. Both U.S. soybean yield and crop size are record large. The USDA did increase its soybean export forecast by 10 mbu, but ending stocks still increased 5 mbu to a total of 315 mbu. This is still a level of reserves that requires at least some rationing. Global soybean carryout was also little changed, creeping up to 124.3 mmt from an even 124 mmt last month. The USDA left its average cash value on soybeans at $12 a bushel this month.

The USDA put its U.S. wheat crop estimate at 1.543 bbu in this month’s balance sheets. Wheat ending stocks are estimated at 740 mbu for this year, well above the 717 mbu from a month ago. A sizable cut in exports was behind this increase to stocks. This was also 20 mbu more than trade was expecting. Global wheat ending stocks were little changed this month at 276 mmt, just under September’s 276.3 mmt. The USDA trimmed its average cash value of wheat by 10 cents at $6.30 per bushel.

The USDA trimmed its beef production outlook this month, lowering the 2026 estimate to 24.8 billion pounds, down 70 million from September. Beef production for 2027 is now estimated at 24.68 billion pounds, down 160 million pounds from last month. Beef exports were left unchanged this month with 2.34 billion pounds for 2026 and 2.33 billion pounds for 2027. The USDA increased its beef imports by 85 million pounds for 2026 to 6.35 billion pounds and raised 2026 imports 125 million pounds to 6.18 billion. The average steer value is estimated at $237.50 per hundredweight for 2027.

Sizable cuts were made to U.S. pork production estimates this month. Pork production for 2026 is now pegged at 27.62 billion pounds, down 150 million pounds. Production for 2027 is estimated at 27.83 billion pounds, down 250 million. Pork export forecasts were lowered for 2026 by 60 million pounds, putting it at 7.05 billion pounds. Next year’s pork exports were cut 95 million pounds to total 7.1 billion. The average hog value was cut 75 cents this month at an even $63.00 per cwt.

One number from the October WASDE report that sticks out is the global corn ending stocks projection. The USDA raised world corn ending stocks 8 mmt for the 2026/27 marketing year in its latest estimate, putting it at 280.4 mmt. This was mainly from the larger U.S. production estimate. While this was a sizable jump, it is still one of the lowest ending stocks in recent history at a time when global corn demand is expanding. World corn ending stocks were 295.6 mmt at the end of the 2024/25 marketing year and 307.2 mmt at the end of last year. 

Data out of Ukraine shows the country’s grain exports continue to be impacted by the war with Russia. Year to date, Ukraine has exported 5.36 million mmt of grain compared to 7.19 mmt a year ago. Wheat has seen the greatest loss, with exports at 2.89 mmt compared to last year’s 5.12 mmt. Ukraine corn exports are twice last year’s pace though at 1.95 mmt compared to the 2025 volume of 974,000 mt. European Union demand is a leading cause of the elevated corn demand as production in those counties is the lowest in 50 years due to persistent drought.

Ag Rural has updated its Brazil planting numbers. Ag Rural claims 38 percent of Brazil’s first corn crop is now planted, down slightly from last year’s 40 percent. The Brazil soybean crop is reportedly 7.3 percent planted, just below the average 9 percent completion. Ag Rural is also forecasting soybean acres of 121.4 million in Brazil and a total crop of 182.7 mmt. This is at the top end of most recent Brazil soybean crop projections.

U.S. drought conditions continue to improve. The main corn production area is now 19 percent in drought, down 2 percent from last week and 21 percent less than a year ago. Soybean area is 25 percent in drought, down 2 percent from a week ago and 14 percent less than last year. Winter wheat in drought conditions is 53 percent, a 4 percent improvement on the week but 8 percent more than last year. U.S. pasture area in drought stands at 52 percent, down 5 percent on the week but up 27 percent from last year.

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