Questions are starting to arise over the corn yield the USDA released in the October WASDE report. The USDA raised its average U.S. corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.6 bpa from the September estimate. While an increase, this is still a year-to-year yield decline of 5.4 bpa and will produce a crop 300 million bu less than predicted demand. Analysts are starting to question why the USDA raised the average corn yield when crop ratings declined over the report span. Several feel this will lead to yield reductions in future balance sheet updates.

Analysts also feel trade should be paying more attention to the global corn balance sheets. This year’s world corn crop is forecast to be 37 mmt smaller than last year. This is expected to lead to a stocks drop of 26.7 mmt from last marketing year to this one. While the current world corn carryout number did jump in October, it is still the smallest estimate in recent history.

Chinese officials are now predicting 2026/27 marketing year corn imports of 3.5 million metric tons, 170,000 mt less than the prior year. Reduced animal numbers and elevated feed wheat usage are primary causes of the lower corn import forecast, but so are thoughts the domestic crop will be 5 mmt to 8 mmt larger than last year. China has also turned to more sorghum imports as they require fewer safety certificates than corn imports. China is forecasting this year’s sorghum imports at 8 mmt, an increase of 550,000 mt from a year ago.

China’s September soybean imports totaled 11.88 mmt. This was a 2.1 percent decline from August and 7.7 percent below the September 2025 volume. Year to date, China has now imported 86.08 mmt of soybeans. Sources in China feel the country’s soybean imports may have peaked, and demand may decline. China feeders continue to streamline herds and make feeding more efficient, both in cattle and in hogs. Chinese feeders are also importing alternatives to soybeans, mainly canola.

Chinese officials revised the country’s soybean crop estimate, cutting it from the prior estimate. China’s Ag Minister is now forecasting a soybean crop of 20.36 mmt, down 590,000 mt from the last revision. The Ag Minister credits the smaller crop to fewer planted acres and yields that were below expectations. Given forecasts for more Brazil soybeans to be consumed domestically, this may lead to elevated U.S. trade with China.

Despite cuts to its sow herd, Chinese pork production continues to increase. Data from China’s Academy of Ag Science shows China’s sow herd is declining at a slower than forecast pace. Last year, China produced a record 59.38 million tons of pork, and this year’s output may be even higher as finished hog weights remain elevated. Wheat is most concerning for China’s hog industry officials is that China’s pork consumption has declined 5.4 percent in the past year, leading to excess pork supplies.

This decline in China’s hog herd has impacted feed demand for corn. China’s feed industry consumed 201.5 million metric tons of corn in the 2025/26 marketing year, 9.4 mmt less than the prior year. As the country’s hog and cattle herds see more efficiencies this usage will decline even more. Industrial corn demand expended 4 mmt in China last year, partially covering this loss.

Over the past several weeks, there has been a surge in demand for alternative feed grains to high priced corn and soybeans. One of the most talked about is feed wheat, as this product is readily available across the global market. Given the perpetual harvest around the globe, the feed wheat supply is also being steadily replenished. We are now seeing importers book more barley and sorghum for import as these grains require fewer safety certificates than corn. Soybean traders are now starting to see elevated competition from canola and palm oil. One of the leading importers to shift to alternative feedstock is China, which has lowered its corn and soybean import forecasts as a result.

The Brazilian firm CONAB released its initial 2026/27 balance sheets with limited changes from last year. Brazil’s total corn crop is now estimated at 148.02 mmt, up 4 mmt from 2025/26. The corn export forecast rose to 46 mmt from last year’s 43.92 mmt. Corn carryout was lowered to 14.9 mmt from last year’s 15.56 mmt. 

CONAB is predicting a Brazil soybean crop of 181.67 mmt this year, up slightly from last year’s 180.4 mmt. This is the smallest projected increase for year-to-year soybean production for Brazil in recent history. Exports are projected at 118 mmt, up from last year’s 116.2 mmt. Soybean ending stocks estimates are down slightly at 6.54 mmt.

Wheat balance sheets are steady from last year, with production at 5.74 mmt, imports at 7.06 mmt, And ending stocks of 1.06 mmt.

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