By DOUG SCHMITZ

Iowa Correspondent

CEDAR FALLS, Iowa — The 2019 Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour from August 19-25 wrapped up its 27th trek through its yearly swath of the upper Midwest, with projections for both corn and soybeans that were lower than the USDA’s latest numbers.

Reuters reported the USDA pulled all staff from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in Iowa “after an employee was threatened, and three sources said the threat came over the phone from an angry farmer.”

“The biggest differences in maturity were in the far Eastern Corn Belt, Ohio, Indiana, parts of Illinois, and South Dakota,” said Brian Grete, editor of Pro Farmer’s newsletter. “Iowa and Nebraska, they were a little bit more mature, but I wouldn’t say anything was more advanced than what it normally would be.”

Pro Farmer forecast corn yield at 163.3 bushels per acre (bpa), 6.2 lower than the USDA’s latest projections at 169.5 bpa, estimating total corn production at 13.35 billion bushels, compared to the USDA’s 13.87 billion.

For soybeans, Pro Farmer forecast 46.1 bpa and 3.49 billion bushels, with the USDA projecting 48.5 bpa and 3.84 billion bushels.

“From the final estimates made by the crop tour, it appears that they came out with production numbers that were slightly lower but pretty close to the NASS August 1 numbers,” Greg Thessen, executive director of the USDA-NASS Upper Midwest Regional office in Des Moines, told Farm World. “The final Pro Farmer estimates were within the margin of error of the NASS August 1 forecast.”

The Cedar Falls, Iowa-based publication said the tour’s primary goal is to provide the industry with accurate growing season information.

The publication makes its annual trip through Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa (two stops in the southeast and northwest portions), Minnesota, Nebraska (two stops in the southeast portion) and South Dakota.

According to its August 23 data, in Ohio, Pro Farmer editors said the yield potential measured on the tour is similar to what the USDA found: “But we’re skeptical the crop will reach maturity before the first freeze. The crop needs rain and several extra weeks at the end of the growing season. The USDA is a bit too optimistic about the crop.”

In Indiana, the editors said there was crop potential after rain fell during the tour: “The crop still isn’t as good as it could have been, with skips and blank stalks still reflective of the yield drag from the wet spring.”

In Illinois the editors said, “It won’t be the corn-producing powerhouse it usually is. Some of its best acres lost yield potential because they were planted late in less-than-ideal conditions.”

In Iowa the editors said the nation’s top corn-producing state’s crop is good but not great: “It looked better from the road,” was a common refrain during Tour. There were some garden areas in the west, but variability capped the crop’s upside in the rest of the state. Most of the crop should be fine if it avoids new disease threats.”

Virgil Schmitt, Iowa State University (ISU) field agronomist in southeast Iowa, told Farm World Pro Farmer projected Iowa corn yield at 10 bpa less than the USDA.

“Because of the amount of corn planted in early June, I do believe the USDA projection on corn yield is too high,” he said.

According to its August 23 data for soybeans, Pro Farmer said in Ohio, “this year’s crop is essentially double-crop beans, with pod counts nearly 40 percent under last year’s Tour result. Some of the crop was still flowering, so it could, in theory, build on the potential we measured. But it would need an extended season and more rain to do so.”

In Indiana, the editors said, “It’s certainly not a normal crop, but if you add some timely rains and a few weeks to the end of the growing season, the crop may add to the potential we measured.”

In Illinois, the editors said, “Pod counts plunged versus the average, and much of the Illinois crop will likely perform like double-crop beans. A normal freeze would be devastating.”

In Iowa the editors said, “The trend of low pod counts continued in Iowa, as the yield factory was again stunted by late planting dates and less-than-ideal soil conditions.”

Paul Georgy, Allendale, Inc., president and CEO, said in his August 20 crop report that Pro Farmer’s crop results contradicted USDA data.

“Grain markets rebounded in the overnight session, recouping some of the losses from the previous session as the crop tour forecasted below-average yields for both corn and soybeans,” he said. “The weekly crop progress report also showed lower-than-expected, good-to-excellent ratings as well.  

“The USDA weekly crop progress report was surprisingly bullish, with corn condition ratings at 56 percent GTE or government total expenditure (58 percent GTE expected, 57 percent GTE last week, 69 percent 5-year average),” he added. “Soybean condition rating at 53 percent GTE (54 percent GTE expected, 54 percent GTE last week, 66 percent 5-year average).”

He said, “The Pro Farmers Crop Tour began yesterday (Aug. 19) with the Eastern part of the tour, starting in Ohio where they found well below-average corn yield potential at 154.35 bpa (179.57 last year, 164.38 three-year average) and soybean pod count at 764.01 pods (1,248.2 last year, 1,136.75 three-year average).” He added most traders would be focused on yield outlooks/pod counts in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.

Mark Licht, ISU assistant professor of agronomy and extension cropping systems specialist, told Farm World corn progress is running behind “much more than we’ve seen in a number of years.”

“That can be attributed to both delayed planting conditions as well as a growing season that has been on the cooler side of normal for the most part,” he said.

He said soybean development progress is not affected as much by those factors because they are photoperiod-sensitive crops, “which means day length is a bigger driver of development as compared to heat unit accumulation for corn.”

“The cool weather will definitely affect yields for both corn and soybeans,” he said. “Late May-and June-planted crops will likely have smaller seed size and lighter test weights.

“As for how close the Pro Farmer crop tour will be, time will tell,” he added. “I think they were able to account for some factors (seed number in particular) that are critical for estimating yield accurately.”

He said the other factor needed to accurately estimate yield is seed size, “and with crop development running behind, that may be where the error in the estimates come from.”

“Overall, I think they are accurate that yield levels will be extremely variable within fields as well as from one field to the next, and that yields will most certainly be down from the past year.”