FORT WORTH, Texas — Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in June 2025 compared to a year earlier as the effects of international tariffs imposed by the U.S. took effect. The rise reflected an increase of 0.3 percent over the previous month. Coupled with the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) embargo on imports of Mexican cattle, prices paid to producers for beef are expected to remain high for the foreseeable future.

This is according to Andrew Coppin, a cattle expert and CEO of ranch-tech firm Ranchbot, who cited a combination of environmental and economic forces which combined to push the average retail price for ground beef to $5.98 per pound in May, representing a 16.2 percent year-over-year price increase. In addition to the recent drivers, Coppin told Farm World the historic highs are also due to shrinking beef cattle herds, prolonged drought in cattle-producing areas, labor shortages and supply chain issues resulting from tariff uncertainties. 

“We’ve walked into a supply-demand equation where there are herds at lows not seen since the 1960s or 1950s, while the demand for red meat, particularly beef, in the U.S. is surging. Throw on top of that equation low supply and rising demand while not importing beef cattle from Mexico gives you another uptick in prices,” said Coppin, who works with ranchers to manage water supply issues and extreme weather through his company, Ranchbot, which is utilized on around 10,000 farms internationally. 

“There are whole ranching operations that rely on importing cattle from Mexico that are now obviously on hold, and there’s not a lot we can do about it. Just a little over a million head per year come from Mexico to get fattened up here and turned into steaks, and that’s now been cut off.”

Coppin believes the New World screwworm threat, which caused USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to announce a ban on Mexican cattle imports in June, is real and tangible. He feels it could take only one severe windstorm to push the insect’s presence much closer to the U.S. than the 300-miles plus that presently separates it from the U.S.’ southern border. “This could put the whole U.S. cattle industry at risk. (USDA) is working on mitigation strategies but they are going to take time, and time is something we don’t have,” he said. 

Greatly exacerbating the situation is ongoing drought in southwest Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, where some cattle-producing areas have seen just one or two inches of rain in the past year. 

“Given the horrific flooding events we’ve had in particular counties in Texas, you don’t have to drive four or five hours away and there’s areas that are still in very severe drought. The fact that cow-calf operators need pastures to grow and rebuild their herds is another (factor) affecting the supply issue. If you’re a rancher, buying a calf is going to cost $2,500 to $3,000, so you need to know you’ve got safe pasture to put them on and raise them,” said Coppin, adding that this weather volatility is causing many producers to hesitate to rebuild their herds.

“In the universe of ranchers I talk to, no one has really begun to rebuild their herds yet because they want to see some reliability and sustainability,” he reported, “and I’m not sure when we’re going to get that. It’s far from a zero-risk venture for a farmer to go buy another 10 or 20, or 50 or 100 cows in the hope they get rain.” 

Even with retail beef prices at or near all-time highs, due to the long list of factors affecting beef prices many producers are still reluctant to increase their herds. Adding to the uncertainty many southwestern beef ranchers are currently facing labor shortages that could prohibit smaller producers from herd expansion. 

“You have to really want to do ranching. You’ve got to be there for the lifestyle and you’ve got to ride through the (supply-demand) cycles,” said Coppin. “The economics of ranching are changing.”

Coppin shared his “5 Things Farmers and Ag Industry Workers Can Do to Adapt to the Disruptions Caused by Climate and World Events” with Farm World readers:

1) “Adopt Water Monitoring Tech — Smart monitoring tools like Ranchbot can reduce water losses and save time. One customer reported a 30 percent decrease in fuel use just by eliminating unnecessary tank runs, saving him over $30,000 per annum.”

2) “Diversify Inputs and Income — Relying on a single product or market is risky. Some producers are now integrating tourism, carbon credits, or alternative energy into their Ranching operations. We also have Ranchers who are developing direct-to-consumer offerings to add value to their existing products. Companies like Centennial Cuts, which is a ranching operation selling a high-end line of Beef Jerky products, are an example.”

3) “Improve Data-Driven Decision-Making — Leveraging tools for soil moisture, rainfall trends, pasture density, and livestock tracking helps make smarter resource use. We have a huge number of ranchers now able to monitor rainfall across pastures daily so they can make better grazing duration decisions.”

4) “Build Community and Collaboration — “Sharing insights with neighboring ranchers and co-investing in Agritech Innovations can help build greater awareness, reduce risks, and get to smarter incomes faster.”

5) “Stay Ahead on Policy and Subsidies — “Understanding local and national Ag-funding programs helps farmers invest in sustainable tech earlier and with support. There are great programs like NRCS where our sort of technology can get material subsidies as part of water infrastructure programs that allow for a very affordable entry into Agritech solutions.”