WASHINGTON, D.C. – According to a new analysis by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), economic factors, combined with bird disease challenges, have driven wholesale turkey prices up about 40 percent this year.

“Higher turkey prices are a direct result of tighter turkey supplies caused by birds lost to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI),” Bernt Nelson, AFBF economist, told Farm World. “Higher turkey prices mean consumers will likely pay more at the grocery store for their Thanksgiving turkey and other turkey products this year.”

The report said U.S. poultry farmers are battling a combination of diseases impacting the industry. This includes HPAI (a highly contagious and often fatal viral disease that affects birds, including poultry, and wild birds), which has affected more than 18 million turkeys since 2022, as well as avian metapneumovirus (AMPV), a highly contagious, viral upper respiratory disease that affects poultry and wild birds.

While detections of HPAI slowed during warmer summer months, the report said fall waterfowl migration and cooler temperatures have led to detections across the Upper Midwest, impacting about 600,000 turkeys in September.

“Fall waterfowl migration season has started, resulting in 15 total detections in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin poultry flocks this month (September) alone, affecting 3.75 million total birds in September,” Nelson said. “Turkeys accounted for 606,600, or about 17 percent, of the birds affected this month (September). With much of the migration season still ahead, the industry faces the likelihood of additional HPAI cases in the coming weeks.”

He said the National Turkey Federation estimated AMPV was present in 60-80 percent of turkey flocks in 2024, and continues to be a problem.

“AMPV is less lethal than HPAI, and the USDA’s Center for Veterinary Biologics recently allowed the importation of several vaccines,” he said. “Affected birds can also be treated for any secondary infections caused by AMPV, which may reduce the severity of the disease.”

He said one of the greatest impacts of AMPV is a reduction in egg sets for breeders (fertile eggs for hatching chicks) producing the next generation of turkeys to replace losses from HPAI.

“Breeders face a tough road with the risk of egg-laying birds becoming infected with either HPAI, AMPV or both,” he said. “Excellent biosecurity, cleaning and downtime between flock placements are the best tools for prevention and control outside of vaccination.”

He said the USDA’s Turkeys Raised Report, released Sept. 26, estimates 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025, down 3 percent from 2024, and down 36 percent from a peak of about 303 million in 1996. “This marks the lowest estimate in 40 years when 185 million turkeys were raised in 1985, and will lead to higher prices for consumers.”

He said another key indicator is the USDA’s monthly Turkey Hatchery Report, which contains the number of turkey eggs in incubators on the first day of the report month and poults (young turkeys) placed on feed during the previous month.

“These numbers reflect the pipeline that sustains turkey production, even as HPAI and AMPV pressure flocks and challenge supply,” he said. “In addition, poults hatched and poults placed in June 2025 were both 5 percent higher than June 2024. Eggs in incubators in August 2025 were 24.9 million eggs, up 4 percent from July, and the highest number since April.”

However, he said while this is the highest number of eggs in incubators since April, it’s down about 8 percent from 27.16 million five years ago: “This underscores the impact of HPAI and AMPV on layers’ ability to replenish birds lost to disease.”

Although turkey supplies are lower than historical averages, he said demand is also down over the last few decades, resulting in plenty of turkey for the holiday season.

“The USDA’s latest WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) Report projects 4.49 billion pounds of turkey will be consumed or exported in 2025, down 610 million pounds, or 12 percent, from 2015,” he said. “According to the National Turkey Federation, Americans consume around 49 million turkeys, or about 1.4 billion pounds of turkey, during the Thanksgiving holiday. This accounts for more than a quarter of total 2025 U.S. turkey production consumed in one day.”

He said international trade also plays a role in balancing U.S. turkey supplies, adding U.S. imports of turkey and turkey products have been very consistent.

“The USDA’s latest WASDE Report projects about 36 million pounds of turkey will be imported in 2025, down 1 million pounds from last year, and unchanged from a decade ago,” he said. “The U.S. imported about 24 million pounds of turkey from Canada in 2024, along with about 12 million pounds from Chile and 4,000 pounds from Mexico. Canada, Chile and Mexico have been the only source countries for turkey imports since 2021.”

He added the WASDE Report forecasts 417 million pounds of turkey exports in 2025, up 5 million pounds from last month’s estimates, but down 69 million pounds, or about 14 percent, from 2024.

“Mexico was the largest export destination for U.S. turkey in 2024, receiving over 365 million pounds of turkey, or 75 percent of all turkey exports by volume,” he said. “Canada was the second-largest destination, receiving about 11.4 million pounds, or 3 percent by volume.”

He said the USDA recently forecast the 2025 national average composite wholesale price for a frozen whole hen turkey will be $1.32 per pound, up 4 cents per pound from September’s forecast and up 38 cents per pound, or 40 percent, from the 2024 price of 94 cents: “The 2025 rise in price is a response to lower production with HPAI pressures, combined with steady demand.”

While U.S. poultry farmers are dealing with the broader economic challenges facing the agricultural economy, he said these production challenges shouldn’t have any impact on consumers’ ability to get turkey, but stressed again they may translate to higher retail prices this holiday season.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said, “Poultry farmers have demonstrated their resiliency in facing down challenges, but rising supply costs, trade disputes and avian illnesses have all taken their toll. Despite that, poultry remains one of the most affordable sources of protein and you can bet turkey farmers are ensuring birds will be available for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.”

Nelson concluded, “Keep an eye out for the results of this year’s American Farm Bureau Federation’s Thanksgiving Dinner Survey, which will be released Nov. 19. This survey provides prices for a set basket of goods, including turkey and other Thanksgiving favorites, to give shoppers a snapshot of what they can expect to pay as they head to grocery stores to stock up for the big day.”