URBANA, Ill. — With corn trading at around $5.30 per bushel and soybeans at around $13, farmers curious about current and future crop price projections dialed into a Sept. 3 University of Illinois farmdoc webinar, “Projected 2027 Corn & Soybean Returns,” hosted by economists Nick Paulson and Gary Schnitkey. The good news shared with farmers was that current crop prices should continue into 2027. The not-so-good news, however, was that high input costs are also expected to persist or increase, according to the economists.

“Costs are going to be high, so we are projecting $710 (per acre) non-land costs for central Illinois for a 50-50 rotation of corn and soybeans. $710 would be the largest non-land cost ever,” Schnitkey announced. Coupled with a projected cash rent price of $321 per acre, farmers would be looking at total production costs of around $1,031 per acre, with a top projected price of $1,052, he said. 

“(High) yields have really helped Illinois farmers,” said Paulson, “but our costs are growing at paces that are matching if not exceeding some of the yield increases we are seeing over time. Those breakevens are creeping up rather than holding steady or going down even though we are producing more bushels year after year.”

Commenting on the July-August 2026 price surge for row crops (farmdoc had previously projected 2026 prices at $4.50 per bushel for corn and $11.09 for soybeans), Schnitkey credited the surge to an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine War restricting grain movements, along with USDA’s forecast for lower yields across the Corn Belt, among other drivers. As of August 1, USDA was forecasting 212 bu./acre for Illinois corn, though more recent independent projections call for a lesser harvest due to weather factors. Also on that date USDA projected Illinois soybeans at 67 bu./acre, which would be a record state yield if realized. 

“The next two weeks or months could erase those (price) gains as easily as you could potentially see even higher prices,” Paulson cautioned. 

After a 2025 state corn yield of 242 bu./acre, central Illinois farmers are projected by the farmdoc team to harvest an average of 240 bu./acre in 2026, remaining unchanged from an earlier farmdoc forecast. “245 (bu./acre) is our projection for 2027,” Schnitkey said of next year’s corn harvest. “That is continuing a trend yield.”

After revising their final 2026 marketing year corn delivery price to $4.95 per bushel, farmdoc’s projection for corn crop revenue is now $11.88. The team’s 2027 projection for corn is $5 per bushel and $12.25 in crop revenue. “We could get over that $4.95 in forward bids,” said Schnitkey. “We kept it at $4.95 because roughly a third of the (crop) has been marketed already at a much lower price. By the way, that wasn’t necessarily a bad decision. So even though harvest bids are above $5 right now, we are keeping it there (at $4.95).”

For soybeans, after earning $12.24 per bushel in 2025 and a projected $12.20 for the final 2026 marketing year price, prices will slip slightly to $12 for 2027 soybeans, according to the farmdoc team. “$5 corn and $12 soybeans are where we will start out bidding in 2027,” Schnitkey said. “In marketing, you might want to think aggressively.”

Break-even projections for 2026 corn and soybeans in central Illinois were estimated at $4.82 and $10.96 per bushel, respectively. For 2027, the break-even price for corn is projected at $4.92 per bushel, while soybean break-even is placed at $11.10 per bushel. 

“We are cautiously optimistic that returns will be higher in 2026 and in 2027,” said Schnitkey, “but we are still in a period of below-average returns.” Schnitkey closed by advising producers to preserve cash flow and emphasize returns over yields, while carefully evaluating any capital purchases.

“Downward price movements could quickly shift marginally positive projected returns back into the red. Pricing more than the usual amount of 2026 crop at harvest may be warranted given recent increases in prices. Profitable hedging opportunities for 2027 production may exist,” the farmdoc team advised in an article published on Sept, 1, “Illinois Crop Budgets for 2027.”

An archived recording of the Sept. 3 U of I farmdoc webinar, “Projected 2027 Corn & Soybean Returns,” is available to view at https://farmdoc.illinois.edu/webinars.