By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor ST. LOUIS, Mo. — When trying to predict what the world’s farmers may do in the future, such experts turn to past behavior – in the form of numbers.
At last week’s Land Use and Carbon Impacts of Corn-based Ethanol conference hosted by the National Corn Growers Assoc., Ross Korves of ProExporter said historical data show the world has turned to planting more oilseed crops in the past three decades, not corn, as is often speculated.
“We have gotten substantially off-track in our thinking because we have not been willing to look back,” he said, adding he’s surprised by how much ag experts don’t know about historical data, including corn exports from the United States.
A former longtime American Farm Bureau Federation economist, Korves said since 1975, the U.S. has continued growing more than 200 million acres in major crops, while the rest of the world has steadily increased, from less than 1.6 billion to more than 1.8 billion acres. Major food crops and coarse grains have remained stable, while oilseed planting has shot up.
Further, he said global land use for all agriculture has more than doubled – more people overseas began to be able to afford soy and meat, which precipitated more livestock production and need for feed meal.
Last year, Korves said the U.S. broke its previous record for corn exports. The year beaten? It was 1979.
“If I would’ve stood up (then) and said ‘It’ll be almost 30 years before we break the record,’ they would’ve called me a fool and a lot of other things we can’t (say here),” he told conference-goers.
Further, he said according to the USDA export outlook for corn, the U.S. is not likely to exceed last year’s record, over the next decade. “It’s not that exports don’t grow at all,” he said – it’s just not likely we’ll exceed what we’ve done in the past anytime soon.
Dr. Emerson Nafziger of the University of Illinois said when corn was under $2 per bushel several years ago, export demand wasn’t any higher than it has been since with U.S. ethanol production.
“I’m sort of dubious that we lost exports because of ethanol use,” he added. “We had the corn (in the early 2000s).”
Further, he said if U.S. farmers are required to produce higher corn yields, they will likely need more water. “Are we going to drain the Great Lakes and irrigate it?” he asked, pointing out that the Corn Belt is the best place in the world to grow the crop – and even it doesn’t get the kind of rainfall needed for 300 bushels per acre across the board.
More nitrogen is another way to boost yields – if it’s desirable to use more, that is.
“Basically, nitrogen’s where you pull out all the stops,” Nafziger said – such as for a yield contest – although that’s not always the best thing to do.
One of the most difficult tasks scientists have had, he said, is to convince growers that more nitrogen isn’t always needed.
Our share of world ag exports has gone down over the years, while U.S. yields – particularly corn – have increased by at least 50 percent. One reason for the export drop, Korves said, is demand from the European Union and former Soviet Union, which used to be big importers, “all but disappeared” in the mid-1990s.
Even with increased domestic ethanol production, Korves said U.S. corn feed and residual use has kept increasing. He predicted feed use of the ethanol byproduct distillers’ grains will grow through the mid-2010s, then level off with less corn ethanol production – eventually, he believes ethanol will play even less of a role in demand for corn.
Land use changes are nothing new. Korves said the early 1970s oil price spike was accompanied by an increase in land use for principal crops, as well. After oil prices fell, that land use dropped, especially in the South where it went into pasture and trees. |
