One of the greatest concerns in the market right now remains the lack of Chinese new crop demand on soybeans. The United States has 7.2 million metric tons of new crop soybeans sold, but none to China. China has been actively booking soybeans though, with total bookings currently at 16.3 mmt, a year-to-year increase of 7 mmt. Of this, a reported 10 mmt is for 2025/26 delivery. China has been actively booking soybeans from Argentina and Uruguay instead, along with canola from Australia rather than soybeans from the U.S. While this is negative in the near term, the more soybeans China buys from South America the fewer soybeans that will be available for other importers, favoring the U.S.

Changes in China’s feed rations are starting to impact their overall demand. China’s feed production in July of this year was up 5.5 percent from last year at 28.3 mmt. China’s feed rations are currently 33 percent corn based, down from the 47 percent at the start of the year, according to the research group Sitonia. Meal content has risen to 14 percent of feed rations, the highest level since May 2024. China has tried to curb meal usage in feed rations, but the current blend is at a 2 ½ year high.

While Chinese commodity demand is uncertain, one region of the globe that will likely need more corn imports is the European Union. Analysts from the EU are projecting a 2025/26 corn crop of 57.6 mmt, down from the 60.1 mmt that was projected back in July. This is also a 3.4 percent decline from the previous corn crop as drought has impacted much of the region’s production. EU officials have upped their corn import by 500,000 mt to a total of 18.8 mmt. This number is likely understated however, as last year the EU imported 20 mmt of corn with a larger domestic crop.

These changes in Chinese soybean demand and its impact on the U.S. market may be over exaggerated. The July Census crush report showed us that from last September through the end of June, U.S. soybean processors have consumed 2.25 billion bu of soybeans, a year to year increase of 6.09 percent. This increase in crush is the result of growing biofuel production that is elevating soy oil demand. U.S. soy oil stocks at the end of July totaled 1.87 billion pounds, the lowest volume in the past seven months.

What trade is overlooking is that U.S. soy meal reserves at the end of July were 353,131 short tons, a nine-month low. For several months trade has been showing concern with a soy meal oversupply from elevated crush, and just the opposite has happened. This is creating a shift in the entire soy complex outlook.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows a considerable drop in U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel imports from a year ago. U.S. biodiesel imports for the first half of 2025 averaged 2,000 barrels per day compared to 35,000 barrels per day over the same period in 2024. Renewable diesel imports averaged 5,000 barrels per day through the end of June, down from the 33,000 barrel a day in 2024. These are the lowest volume of imports since 2012 when the U.S. renewable fuel industry was just starting to expand.

The primary reason for the drop in imports is the removal of the $1 per gallon blender tax credit that was being paid on both domestic and imported fuels. The 45Z Clean Fuel Credit removed this payment for imported bio fuels.

The spread between retail costs of beef, pork and chicken are starting to become more noticeable. The average retail cost of beef in the United States is up 13 percent from a year ago at $9 per pound. This compares to $5 per pound for pork and $2.50 a pound for chicken. The main reason for the increase in beef is tariffs on Brazilian imports that have cut off a major supply of U.S. ground beef.

Consumer demand for beef and pork remains high, but retailers warn high-priced beef is just starting to make its way into the supply line. Many retailers and packers both have been absorbing a portion of elevated beef costs but are now having to pass more of these along to consumers. This will likely impact beef demand, especially as the grilling season comes to an end.

The trade dispute between the European Union and China has escalated with China now accusing the EU of dumping cheap pork into their market. This decision comes from an investigation that ended in June 2024 and covered the years from 2020 to 2023. This covered the time span when the Chinese hog herd was devastated by African swine fever and China needed to expand pork imports. China has now placed import duties from 16 percent to 32 percent on pork imports from EU members.

The United States has seen choppy soybean demand for the past several weeks, and now the same is taking place in Brazil. Brazil is reporting August soybean exports of 9.34 mmt, well above last year’s 8.04 mmt at this time. For the marketing year Brazil has exported 66 mmt of soybeans, a year to year increase of 7.9 percent. Much of this increase has been to China in an absence of any U.S. business. Brazil has seen its soybean demand drop though, with just 12 vessels traded to China in the past two weeks.

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