The U.S. corn inventory on Sept. 1 was 1.532 billion bu, 13 percent less than a year ago. This total indicates a fourth quarter corn usage of 3.11 bbu, 120 million bu less than a year ago. Of these corn stocks, 643 mbu were being held on-farm, 18 percent less than a year ago. Off-farm stocks were down 10 percent on the year at 888 mbu. The USDA also bumped up the 2024 corn production by 25 mbu due to higher harvested acreage.

The U.S. soybean supply on Sept. 1 was 316 mbu, 8 percent less than a year ago. Fourth quarter soybean usage was 691 mbu, a year-to-year increase of 10 percent. The on-farm soybean supply was down 18 percent from 2024 at 91.5 mbu, and off-farm soybean inventory was 225 mbu, down 3 percent. The USDA added 7.74 mbu of soybeans to the 2024 crop from higher harvested acres.

The U.S. wheat inventory on Sept. 1 was 2.12 bbu, a 6 percent increase from a year ago. Even with elevated stocks, June to August wheat consumption was up 5 percent from last year at 715 mbu. On-farm wheat stocks were up 4 percent at 692 mbu and off-farm stocks were up 7 percent at 1.43 bbu.

The USDA also released its total U.S. wheat production data for 2025, putting the crop at 1.98 bbu. This was up less than 1 percent from the 2024 crop. Total wheat plantings in the U.S. were down 4 percent from 2024 at 37.2 million acres. This was offset by a 2.1 bushel per acre increase in wheat yield to 53.3 bpa for a national average.

As harvest spreads across the Corn Belt, so will seasonal basis pressure. While corn production will be down from initial predictions, the crop is still going to be record sized. While this is accurate, the expansion to storage across the U.S. is worth noting. Between both permanent and temporary storage construction, we may see no more fall movement than in an average year, and possibly less. This could easily limit fall deliveries to forward contracted bushels. With carry building in the corn market there is even less interest in cash market sales. We are now hearing reports the White House is considering a farm subsidy payment from tariff revenue. If farmers do receive these funds, any interest in cash sales of either crop will be greatly reduced, straining cash market inventories.

Not only are this year’s yields being questioned, but so is crop quality. This is on both corn and soybeans as reports indicate both crops struggled to mature properly this year, and in many cases, the crops simply died. This is being attributed to crop disease, summer heat, and both a lack of moisture and excess rainfall at the same time. This condition tends to impact grain quality, mainly test weight on corn and protein and oil content in soybeans. Importers are closely monitoring this as well, and will adjust their bids accordingly.

Another factor impacting both the U.S. cash and export market is lower water levels on the Mississippi River. Drought conditions in the Ohio Valley have reduced the volume of water flowing from that contributory, impacting the entire river level. This led to draft restrictions being placed on the Mississippi, and these are now being lowered. Southbound tows are now being held at a 10 ½ foot draft, and northbound drafts to 10 feet. Tows may also be no more than 6 barges wide. This has caused barge rates to firm, cutting into river bids and interior basis both.

The Brazilian firm CONAB has released its projections for the country’s 2025/26 corn and soybean crops. CONAB is predicting a corn crop of 138.3 mmt this year, down slightly from last year’s 139.7 mmt crop. Corn acreage for 25/26 is estimated at 55.8 million acres, up slightly from last year’s 54 million. A return to normal yields is the reason for the lower estimate. Brazil’s total grain crop is projected at 353.8 mmt, up 3.6 mmt from last year. Brazil’s soybean crop is estimated at 177.7 mmt compared to last year’s 171.5 mmt. Soybean acres are estimated at 121.28 million this year, up 4.2 million from last year.

On the demand side, CONAB is predicting corn exports of 46.5 mmt this year, up from last year’s 40 mmt. The country’s 2025/26 soybean exports are forecast at 112 mmt, up 6 mmt from last year. These numbers are being heavily debated though, as Brazil’s domestic demand keeps rising and may limit any increase in export sales.

Brazil’s planting season has started earlier than in recent years. This is giving trade the indication we may see export competition from Brazil earlier than normal. While this is possible, Brazil may need these soybeans to satisfy domestic crush that is expanding to meet biofuel demand, same as in the U.S. It is not out of the question this added demand will impact Brazil’s exports all marketing year.

Now that the Brazil planting season is underway market analysts are putting more attention on the country’s weather conditions. Analysts are predicting larger Brazilian crops on limited acreage expansion this year, and this will require favorable weather all growing season.

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