PEORIA, Ill. – A small but interested group of central Illinois farmers gathered in the Peoria County Farm Bureau auditorium on Jan. 20 to hear Jay Mathews and Clay Liesman, of Prairieview Grain, discuss USDA’s revised 2025 harvest yield estimates, which blindsided the market, and 2026-27 market projections.

The pair of analysts offered corn marketing advice for farmers struggling with prices that remain stubbornly below break-even levels and no apparent end in sight, after setting the table with the final 2025 USDA numbers announced Jan. 12, 2026.

“We’ve got a monster corn yield,” said Mathews, founder and CEO of central-Illinois based Prairieview Grain. He said last year’s U.S. corn crop averaged a record 186.5 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from a previous estimate, according to USDA’s Crop Production Annual Summary. 

“This was a 4 percent improvement over 179.3 bpa in 2024, along with harvested acreage up 269 million bushels from USDA’s previous estimate in November. Harvested acreage was raised by 1.3 million acres to 91.3 million acres, resulting in a record crop totaling 17.021 billion bushels, and up over 2 billion bushels, or 14 percent, from 2024,” said Mathews, who has managed grain elevators across central Illinois. He has expertise in trading grain by rail, truck and barge delivered to domestic processors and the river system.

“2.227 billion bushels in ending corn stocks is an all-time record and provides a pretty good cushion built into the market right now,” said Mathews, adding that early planting intentions by farmers point to another record planting for corn, with 95 million U.S. acres projected for the 2026-2027 marketing year.

According to Liesman, corn growers who are confused about how to best market their corn should consider enrolling in an Average Price Program through Prairieview or another crop marketing firm. “The (APP) takes the guesswork out of trying to hit market highs while giving producers the confidence to price grain,” he said. “This program can effectively take the emotion out of marketing your crop.”

Offered by numerous traders, the APP is offered to increase the likelihood of better financial outcomes based on historical seasonal trends. Here’s how the 2025 APP worked, courtesy of Equity Grain Marketing of Effingham, Ill.:

“This contract involves 12 incremental forward sales spread over a specific time frame. The physical delivery period for the grain is set for fall 2025 and/or January 2026. As a farmer, you face many uncertainties on the production side (such as wet or dry conditions, late planting or extreme temperatures) and the unpredictability of the marketing side can add unwanted stress.

“Historically, the highest prices for December corn and November soybeans tend to occur between March and June. Sometimes these peaks happen earlier, and sometimes they come a bit later. However, during the spring, when stresses from planting season and crop uncertainty are high, the market often adds a weather premium. The Average Pricing Program aims to capitalize on this seasonal price increase. Generally, December corn and November soybean futures rise during the spring planting period, but as the crop’s size becomes clearer, prices typically decrease going into the fall.

“Suppose you commit to 2,400 bushels for fall 2025 delivery under the Average Price Program. The 2,400 bushels are divided by 12, meaning 200 bushels per week. Each Wednesday during the pricing window, 200 bushels will be priced according to the fall 2025 bid we post after the Chicago Board of Trade closes. At the end of the 12-week period, the 2,400 bushels are combined into one Forward Price Contract, with the final price being the average of all 12 weekly prices.”

The Prairieview traders also offered the Peoria farmers a glimpse at market influencers to watch for in the 2026-2027 marketing year. They include:

- Will drought in parts of the U.S. persist into spring?

- Will low river levels continue to affect grain movements?

- China is promising to purchase 25 million metric tons of soybeans.

- Blends of ethanol up to 15 percent (E15) will likely be available to motorists year-round.

- Farmers can expect more ad hoc, emergency government relief soon – this time from Congress, rather than USDA reserves.

Praireview is an active member of the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA), and Mathews has been a long-term member of NGFA Trade Rules Committee, currently serving as chair of the Arbitration Appeals Committee.

Mathews and Liesman can be reached with questions about the APP and the upcoming grain marketing year at prairieviewgrain.com/contact.