One of the most contested numbers from the January WASDE report remains corn acres. In May when the initial 2025/26 balance sheets were released, U.S. corn acreage was estimated at 95.3 million for planted acres and 87.4 million on the harvested side. By January, this acreage had risen to 98.8 million for planted acres and 91.3 million on harvested. A big reason for this was a decline in silage acreage due to low cattle numbers. There are some thoughts that recent bridge payments may have altered reported acreage, however. The low farmer survey response rate for the January USDA data of just 40 percent is also casting doubt over the entire release.

While mostly overlooked, the December 1st quarterly stocks report indicated solid demand for U.S. grains and even soybeans. Corn consumption in the first quarter of the marketing year was 5.29 billion bu, well above last year’s 4.58 bbu for the same period. Wheat disappearance totaled 459 million bu, a 9 percent increase from last year. Soybean disappearance was down 20 percent on the year at 1.3 bbu, mainly from a slow start to the China export program, which is now underway.

Where inventory is located is also being monitored, especially by the cash market. Of the December 1st corn inventory, on-farm stocks are up 14 percent and off-farm is up 4 percent. On-farm soybean inventory is up 2 percent and off-farm is up 10 percent. On-farm wheat stocks are down 4 percent from a year ago while off-farm stocks are up 11 percent.

China continues to see elevated demand for its government auctioned soybeans. The latest auction saw 1.14 million mt of soybeans sell. Concerns are building in China that when U.S. soybeans start arriving it will cause lengthy unloading delays at import facilities. Some reports show 25-30 day waits are expected, similar to recent years. Data shows China has 7 mmt of soybeans to arrive in February. At the same time, Chinese crushers report needing coverage for the spring months. As a result, crushers are buying the government offers. These sales will need to be refilled with U.S. soybeans, which is a good sign for future export demand.

China’s Customs Minister is reporting December soybean imports were sizable 8.04 mmt, up 1.3 percent from December 2024. This volume brought China’s total soybean imports for 2025 to 111.83 mmt. This was a 6.5 percent increase from 2024.

Census released its November U.S. corn grind and soybean crush data with friendly numbers. Soybean crush in the month totaled 221 million bu, down from October’s record 236 mbu, but that was the only month higher than the November total on record. Marketing year-to-date soybean crush now totals 662.5 mbu, an 8.2 percent increase from last year. The USDA is currently predicting soybean crush to increase just 4.5 percent year to year.

While soybean crush is high, soy product inventories are building, tempering the positive reaction. U.S. soy oil stocks at the end of November totaled 2.164 billion pounds, well above last year’s 1.61 billion pounds, and the highest volume in 18 months. Soy meal stocks at the end of November totaled 462,916 million tons, a 12-month high.

Census reported an ethanol corn grind in November of 481.87 mbu. This was down 1 percent from October but slightly higher than a year ago. Dried distiller grain production in November totaled 1.75 million tons, down 9 percent from October and 5 percent less than in November 2024.

U.S. beef and pork export totals for 2025 down from 2024, which was not a surprise. Beef exports totaled 697,000 mt for 2025, down 14 percent from the 2024 total of 797,700 mt. A lack of available beef to export was the reason for the smaller total. Pork exports in 2025 totaled 1.55 mmt, down 8 percent from the 2024 total of 1.68 mmt. Culling to China’s hog herd limited U.S. pork exports, as did a shift in global diets to include other proteins.

U.S. beef production for 2025 is starting to become better known. Through November, the U.S. had slaughtered 26.7 million head of beef cattle, 7.1 percent fewer than in the same period in 2024 according to data from the University of Florida. Heifer slaughter for the year was down 7.7 percent through November and fed cattle slaughter was down 6.1 percent.

While slaughter numbers are down, beef production has not declined as much as expected. The USDA is currently predicting 2025 beef production of 26 billion pounds, down just 3.6 percent from 2024. Heavier carcass weights have helped negate some of the loss of animal numbers. Beef production is forecast to start rebounding in 2026, climbing 1 percent to 25.7 billion pounds.

One noticeable trend with recent cattle slaughter is the high grading of beef. U.S. beef from January through November graded 12 percent as prime, up from 10.48 percent in 2024. This is cutting into the U.S. choice and select grade beef, especially with U.S. beef imports down in recent months from tariffs. This is also adding to the higher retail costs of U.S. ground beef.

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