Increased cow numbers and more milk per cow nudged March milk production higher for the 13th month in a row. USDA’s preliminary data showed March output at 20.391 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from March 2025, and followed a 2.9 percent gain in February. The 24-state March total hit 19.591 billion, up 2.4 percent.

February output was revised up 7 million pounds to 18.262 billion, still 2.9 percent above a year ago. The 24-state total was revised down 13 million pounds, to 17.546 billion, up 3.0 percent instead of the 3.1 percent originally reported.

Cow numbers totaled 9.621 million head, up 8,000 from the February count, which was revised down 2,000 head, but was up 187,000 or 2.0 percent from a year ago. The 24-state count, at 9.183 million, was up 8,000 from February’s total, which was revised down 8,000 head, and 188,000 or 2.1 percent above a year ago.

March output per cow averaged 2,119 pounds in the 50 states, up 7 pounds or 0.3 percent from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 2,133 pounds, was also up 7 pounds or 0.3 percent from 2025. The February average was revised up 1 pound in the 50 States and was unchanged in the 24 states.

StoneX says, “Milk production per cow was weaker than expected with growth slowing from 2.4 percent back in November (lapping over bird flu impacts) to up 0.3 percent in March, marking the 4th month of decline. Fat and protein in the milk were up from last year and from last month, however fat content is still below trend. All together this puts component adjusted milk production up 3.3 percent,” says StoneX.

Dairy culling remains above a year ago. USDA data shows 50,400 cows sent to slaughter the week ending April 4, down 2,200 from the previous week, but 1,100 or 2.2 percent above that week a year ago. Year to date, 787,700 head had been culled, up 44,800 head or 6.0 percent from a year ago.

The 2025 Livestock Summary reported 2.641 million head of dairy cattle were slaughtered in 2025, down 84.1 million or 3.1 percent from 2024.

The May Federal order Class I base milk price was announced by the USDA at $20.15 per hundredweight, up $1.49 from April, $1.78 above May 2025, and the highest Class I price since March 2025. It equates to $1.73 per gallon, up from $1.58 a year ago, and put the five-month Class I average at $17.07, down from $20.12 at this time a year ago, and compares to $18.58 in 2024.

Chinese dairy imports were higher in March. China Customs Statistics showed cheese imports totaled 51.8 million pounds, up 40.6 percent from March 2025, an all-time high on a 30-day adjusted basis, according to HighGround Dairy’s analysis, and “Surpassed 22,000 metric tons in a single month for the first time ever.” New Zealand benefited the most, according HighGround, with sales up 40 percent from a year ago. Year to date China’s overall cheese imports are up 33.9 percent.

Butter imports, at 32.1 million pounds, were up 38.8 percent from a year ago, and up 4.4 percent year to date, primarily coming from New Zealand, according to HGD.

Chinese whole milk powder imports soared to 127.8 million pounds, up 34.1 percent from a year ago, highest volume on a 30-day adjusted basis since January 2025, says HGD. Imports YTD however are down 8.5 percent. Skim milk powder imports totaled 43.2 million pounds, down 23.8 percent from a year ago.

Whey product imports fell to 112.1 million pounds, down 25 percent from a year ago and down 13.1 percent YTD.

HighGround blamed China’s aggressive push to downsize their hog population. The government is attempting to support pork prices and that effort has impacted U.S. sales. China’s U.S. purchases were down 6.0 percent from 2025.

HighGround also reported “In early April China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs confirmed the country’s first-ever outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease.”

In other trade news, fat weighed down the Global Dairy Trade auction this week. The weighted average was down 2.7 percent, following a 3.4 percent decline on April 7. Volume fell to 33.1 million pounds, down from 36.4 million on April 7. The average metric ton price slipped to $4,143 US, down from $4,228 on April 7.

Butter led the declines again, down 7.9 percent following an 8.1 percent decline on April 7. Anhydrous milkfat was down 9.6 percent, after dropping 7.1 percent. Whole milk powder was off 0.6 percent, after slipping 0.7 percent, while skim milk powder was up 3.2 percent, after dropping 1.6 percent last time. Cheddar was up 1.1 percent, after dropping 3.1 percent, and Mozzarella was down 3.1 percent, following a 6.2 percent dip. Lactose was up 7.2 percent, after slipping 0.6 percent.

StoneX says the GDT 80 percent butterfat butter price equates to $2.5233 U.S. per pound, down from $2.7354 on April 7. Cheddar equated to $2.1765, down from $2.1617 last time. GDT skim milk powder averaged $1.5641 per pound, up from $1.5337, while whole milk powder averaged $1.6629, down from $1.6724.

North Asia purchases increased from the last event, says StoneX, and took some market share back from SE Asia. “North Asia’s strength in purchase volume led to the region once again posing the largest market share of any buying group. The increase came largely from SMP and WMP purchases. Middle East, Europe, and African purchases also bounced back from the last event,” says StoneX.

Checking Chicago, block Cheddar was trading Thursday at $1.6350 per pound, 6.50 cents below a year ago. It closed Friday at $1.5775. The barrels, after holding at $1.5750 since April 10, gained 4 cents Thursday, hitting $1.6150, 9 cents below a year ago.

Central region milk output is steady, according to Dairy Market News. Spot trades were lighter and prices ranged $5-under to flat Class at mid-week. Cheese production is strong in the region though some plants were down for maintenance this week. Retail cheese demand was unchanged and food service sales somewhat light. Export demand was mixed with some reports of steadily moving loads while others reported lighter interest.

Milk output continues to provide cheese makers with ample volumes in the West. Cheese production is generally steady seven days a week. Cream cheese production is also very active. Spot loads of cheese were tighter this week.

Domestic demand is steady, but demand from retail and other food industry stakeholders is reported to be more robust than demand from food service. Exports are steady to strong, according to DMN.

Lots of butter made its way to Chicago this week, 89 loads so far, 49 on Monday alone, and the price dropped to $1.6450 per pound Thursday, lowest since Feb. 10, and is 63.59 cents below a year ago. It finished Friday at $1.69.

Cream production is strong in the Central region with strong demand from Class II and Class III processors. Butter production is strong and processors are running busy schedules. Retail butter demand is steady, but contacts report light food service sales. Export interest is softening somewhat. says DMN.

Spring milk and cream output is sufficiently accommodating butter producers in the West.