The USDA has released two of the summer’s main commodity market reports – June acreage revisions to March planting intentions and the June 1st quarterly stocks.

For acreage, the USDA is now expected to have planted 95.3 million acres of corn this year, 3 percent fewer than last year but slightly more than the March intentions suggested. This is still the 4th most U.S. corn acres planted since 1944. Harvested acres on corn are forecast at 87.4 million, a 4 percent decline from last fall. 

U.S. soybean plantings for this year are now reported at 85.4 million, up 5 percent from last year. This was nearly equal to trade estimates and just above the March intentions. Total U.S. wheat acres are now 42.7 million, down 6 percent from last year. Total wheat acres were 1 million fewer than trade expected and the March intentions both.

A special note with the report indicated data was collected for this release from May 28th through June 19th. At the end of that period, it was believed there were still 1.9 million corn and 8.05 million soybean acres left to plant.

As of June 1st, the United States held corn stocks of 5.29 billion bu, a 14 percent increase from last June. On-farm stocks were up 16 percent from last year at 2.96 bbu and off-farm stocks were up 12 percent at 2.34 bbu. U.S. corn disappearance from March through May was 3.74 bbu, an increase of 9 percent from the same period in 2025.

U.S. soybean reserves on June 1st were 1.06 bbu, a 5 percent increase from last year. On-farm stocks were 367 million bu, 11 percent fewer than a year ago. Off-farm soybean stocks were 694 mbu, a 16 percent increase from last year. Soybean consumption in the 3rd quarter was 1.06 bbu, a 19 percent increase from 2025.

Total U.S. wheat reserves on June 1st were 920 mbu, an increase of 8 percent from 2025. On-farm wheat stocks were down 4 percent from a year ago at 177 mbu and off-farm stocks were up 11 percent at 743 mbu. March to May wheat consumption was up slightly from last year at 383 mbu.

Analysts are starting to release their Brazilian soybean acreage estimates for the next production cycle. The firm Ag Rural has Brazilian farmers planting 121.03 million acres of soybeans this coming year. While this will be record large, it is an increase of less than 1 percent from this year’s plantings. This is the smallest expansion to Brazil soybean plantings in recent history. Cost of production, credit restraints, and depressed soybean values are limiting farmer interest in expanding their operations this year. The strengthening El Nino and its potential negative impact on Brazil soybean yields is also deterring interest in additional acres.

U.S. weather is at the forefront of most analysts’ attention, but we are seeing more interest in European Union conditions. Extreme heat has settled in across the EU, impacting grain production outlooks. Corn and wheat values in the EU have risen as a result with risk premium being added to futures. The most concern is for corn as the wheat harvest is underway. Even with corn, the crop stress is more regional than widespread, but is still enough to impact overall crop size.

The June U.S. cattle on feed report contained a few surprises for trade. The total number of cattle in U.S. feedlots on June 1st was 11.7 million head, a year-to-year increase of 2 percent. Cattle placements in May totaled 1.7 million head, 10 percent fewer than May 2025. Trade was expecting a 5 percent decline in placements. April placements were unusually high at 106 percent of the prior year and a correction this month was not a surprise. May marketings were just 1.55 million head, a 12 percent decline from 2025 and the second lowest May total since 1996 when record keeping began. These low cattle numbers have had a greater impact on the cattle industry than the recent discovery of New World screwworm.

There is more doubt being cast over the U.S. cattle on feed reports, along with several other survey driven reports the USDA releases. The main point of contention is that the means to collect the numbers used to compile the data is outdated. The USDA still uses phone calls and mailed-out surveys to garner farmer numbers. While the USDA and others claim the numbers they receive are an accurate representation of U.S. farm production, others strongly disagree.

An interesting development is starting to take place to China’s beef import outlook. China sets import quotas on several commodities, including beef. Australia has now reached its beef trade quota of 205,000 metric tons with China and any further sales will be tariffed at 55 percent. This will likely shift China’s importers to other beef sources, although Brazil, another leading beef supplier, is already at 65 percent of its allotment. This may bring Chinese beef importers to the U.S., even with our elevated values.

The question now is if China will need to adjust its beef import quotas moving forward. China has already imported 1.28 million metric tons of beef this calendar year, an 18.4 percent increase from last year. This is from a shift in China’s diets to include more beef and less pork. 

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