Moderate changes were made to the domestic corn balance sheets in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report. The U.S. corn yield is now estimated at 180.5 bushels per acre, a 2.5-bushel reduction from July. This was offset by a 1.2 million increase to U.S. acres as Farm Service Agency data was incorporated into balance sheets. The result was a forecasted 16 billion bu corn crop for the U.S., the 2nd largest on record. Even so, this level of production is 320 million bu less than forecasted demand. Corn exports were bumped up by 75 mbu, which lowered old crop carryout to 1.945 bbu and new crop to 1.65 bbu. The average cash value of corn was raised by 10 cents to $4.50 per bushel.

A minimal reduction was made to the U.S. soybean yield this month, putting it at 52.7 bpa. As with corn, the U.S. found another 1.4 million soybean acres to harvest, which raised the crop size to 4.52 bbu. On the demand side the USDA increased old crop cush by 5 mbu and new crop by 30 mbu. This means ending stocks of 325 mbu for this year and 320 mbu for new crop, both in the area of rationing. The USDA left its cash price projection on soybeans unchanged this month at $11.40 per bushel.

Only minimal changes were made to U.S. wheat balance sheets this month. Total wheat production was steady at 1.53 bbu. Wheat ending stocks are now forecast at 717 mbu for the 2026/27 marketing year, just under the July estimate. Given global production issues, the USDA still raised the average cash value of soybeans to $6.20, up 20 cents from July.

Global balance sheets were little changed this month. The world corn carryout for the 2026/27 crop year is now 274.66 million metric tons, down 600,000 mt from July. The world soybean carryout was steady this month at 124.2 mmt. Wheat ending stocks are expected to increase 350,000 mt to a total of 273.25 mmt. 

Beef production for 2026 is now pegged at 24.97 billion pounds, 320 million fewer than the July estimate. Production for 2027 is estimated at 24.98 billion pounds, down 220 million from the July estimate. Beef exports are now estimated at 2.33 billion pounds for this year and 2.315 billion pounds for 2027, both steady from a month ago. Beef imports are pegged at 6.15 billion pounds for 2026 and 6.05 billion pounds for 2027, both up slightly. The average steer value is now $245.35 per hundredweight for 2026 and $249.25 a cwt for 2027.

Pork production for this year is estimated at 27.88 billion pounds, down 80 million from July. Production for 2027 was held steady this month at 28.14 billion pounds. Pork exports for 2026 were cut 620 million pounds to a total of 7.175 billion pounds. Exports for 2027 increased 100 million pounds to total 7.34 billion pounds. The average hog value is $65.32 a cwt for this year and $64.75 for next.

Even before this report was released the shadow of doubt over the numbers increased considerably. This was the result of the USDA announcing it was changing its methodology used to reach the August results. Typically, the August WASDE report is determined by producer surveys and Farm Service Agency acreage data. This year, the USDA unexpectedly announced it would also be including data that was already known in compiling its results. Soon after, this statement was recanted. This sudden change raised several legitimate questions over the entire report’s accuracy and credibility.

The Brazilian firm CONAB, their version of the USDA, updated the country’s 2025/26 production estimates. CONAB is now forecasting a Brazil soybean crop of 180.46 million metric tons, 110,000 mt below their July estimate. Soybean exports were steady at 116.24 mmt and carryout was bumped up to 9.19 mmt from July’s 8.8 mmt. Brazil’s total corn crop is estimated at 142.96 mmt, up 1.2 mmt from July. Corn exports were unchanged at 46.5 mmt and ending stocks were raised 1 mmt to total 15.58 mmt. Brazil’s wheat crop is now estimated at 5.81 mmt and imports at 7.1 mmt, a 1.2 mmt drop in production and 350,000 mt increase to imports. Wheat ending stocks are now forecast at 900,000 mt, a month-to-month decline of 400,000 mt. The USDA is currently using Brazilian crop estimates of 180.5 mmt of soybeans, 140 mmt of corn, and 7.87 mmt of wheat in balance sheets.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now has the odds of the El Nino weather pattern lasting for the next several months. The CPC believes there is a 90 percent chance of a strong El Nino lasting through fall and into winter for the Northern Hemisphere. The CPC also believes this will be the strongest El Nino event on record since 1950.

When it comes to El Nino weather events, most attention falls on the United States and South America, but several other regions are affected as well. One seeing the most impact is the European Union, where grain production losses are up to 35 percent from a year ago. Germany is seeing its wheat crop fall to 20.55 mmt this year, a decline of 11 percent from 2025.Drought has also impacted EU logistics as waterway movement is restricted due to low river levels. The EU has resorted to grain imports from Ukraine, which is benefitting that country’s export outlook.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.