September soybean crush numbers in line with trade expectations

Much of the talk in the commodity market recently has been on the competition the United States is seeing from Brazil in the global market. While this has been a factor lately, overall competition from Brazil was actually down in the month of October. Brazil is expected to export a total of 6.15 million mt of soybeans this month. This is up slightly from the prior estimate, but down 16.5 percent from September and 8.6 percent lower than October 2025. Monthly corn exports are pegged at 6.1 mmt, down from the last estimate of 6.9 mmt. While this is up 17 percent from September, it was down 6.2 percent from a year ago.

Over the past several weeks we have seen some very robust estimates on the 2026/27 Brazil soybean crop. These include several private estimates around 182 mmt and the USDA at 186 mmt. Not everyone agrees on this size of a crop, especially with an El Nino impacting crop development. One group shows data suggesting the Brazil soybean crop could fall below 164 mmt if a strong El Nino is present during the Brazil growing season. This year’s El Nino is forecast to be stronger than the prior record event in the 2015/16 growing season. That year saw Brazil soybean yields fall 4 percent and safrinha yields down 29 percent.

U.S. soybean crush for the month of September was in line with trade expectations. Census reports 199 million bu of soybeans were crushed in September, slightly less than the 210 mbu in August and 205 mbu in September 2025. Plants were still undergoing maintenance in September, and when combined with tight soybean stocks, crush was impacted. Soy oil production was 2.31 billion pounds in September, 6 percent less than August and 4 percent below September 2025. End of September soy oil stocks were 1.4 billion pounds, down 200 million pounds from August. Meal stocks fell from 452,530 tons in August to 293,358 tons at the end of September.

Corn grind for ethanol totaled 438.42 mbu in September, down 9 percent from August but up 1 percent from a year ago. Dried distiller grain production totaled 1.7 million tons, down 8 percent from August and 1 percent below September 2025.

October cattle on feed numbers helped bring additional buyers to the cattle complex, even with futures leaning toward overbought. The United States had 11.4 million head of cattle on feed on Oct. 1, equal to the number from Oct. 1, 2025. September marketings were down 7 percent from last year at 1.52 million head. Both of these figures matched trade estimates. September placements were a record low for the month at just 1.78 million head, 12 percent fewer than a year ago. These low placements will keep cattle and beef values elevated for the foreseeable future.

The September cold storage report gave us mixed numbers, with red meat stock slipping from August, but up from last year. U.S. beef reserves on Sept. 30 were 400 million pounds, 1 percent less than the end of August but 1 percent more than in September 2025. Frozen pork supplies were 427.18 million pounds at the end of September, down 1 percent from August but up 9 percent from last year. Pork bellies in reserve were 19.7 million pounds, down 12 percent on the month but up 7 percent on the year. The total supply of red meat was down 1 percent from August and up 3 percent from 2025.

The United States continues to see its fluid milk production increase. U.S. milk production in the month of September was up 2,7 percent from 2025. This is mainly from an increase in the U.S. dairy herd of 172,000 head from last year. The U.S. now has a dairy herd of 9.72 million head. While this is weighing on dairy products, it is generating more feed demand, specifically soy meal and corn silage.

The United States has not only seen demand increase for its soybeans recently, but for soy meal as well. Data from North Dakota State University shows the U.S. exported a record 18.6 million mt of soy meal in the 2025/26 marketing year. They believe meal exports in the 2026/27 marketing year will total 20.6 mmt. Since 2020, the United States has seen its soy meal demand increase by 66 percent.

While much of the planting attention in South America has been on Brazil, very good progress is being made in Argentine corn planting. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange is reporting Argentine corn planting at 47 percent, 12 percent ahead of average. There are now thoughts that early planting will favor corn production and may also lead to more corn acres. The debate on this comes from where corn acres will come from without cutting into soybean production.

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