The November supply and demand report was more friendly to corn than trade was expecting. The USDA trimmed its corn yield estimate to 179.6 bushels per acre, down from last month’s 181.2 bpa. This reduction lowered the U.S. projected crop size to 15.89 billion bu, which is still the 2nd largest U.S. crop on record. Carryout was cut to 1.758 bbu as the lower yield was partially offset by a decline in feed and residual usage of 25 million bu and 50 mbu fewer exports. Global ending stocks increased 1.5 million metric tons this month due to a larger South American crop. This put global ending stocks at 281.9 mmt. The USDA is now predicting an average cash corn value of $4.60 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month.

The soybean data also caught trade by surprise this month. The average U.S. soybean yield is now 53.3 bpa compared to 53.1 bpa in October. Total crop size also increased 140 mbu this month to a record 4.574 bbu. This was less than trade was expecting, however. The USDA also increased soybean seed usage by 2 mbu and exports by 25 mbu. The net result was a 15 mbu decrease in ending stock when a 15 mbu increase was expected. U.S. ending stocks now stand at an even 300 mbu which is a level tends to see rationing. Global soybean ending stocks also declined this month to 123.5 mmt, an 800,000 mt reduction. The average cash estimate on soybeans is now $12.10 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month.

Wheat balance sheets saw fewer adjustments this year. Total U.S. production was left unchanged at 1.534 bbu. Ending stocks were increased by 3 mbu from a decline in projected milling. This was half of the projected decline, however. This moved ending stocks to 743 mbu. A bigger change was seen in the world wheat ending stocks with a 4.8 mmt increase being printed at 280.8 mmt. This was the result of larger crops in Australia, Argentina and the Black Sea. The USDA did trim the average cash projection on wheat to $6.20 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month.

The USDA trimmed U.S. beef production this month, which is not surprising given the ongoing lack of fed cattle supplies. Yearly beef production is now estimated at 24.76 billion pounds, 40 million fewer than last month. Beef exports were upped 2 million pounds to 2.34 billion pounds. Beef imports were increased by 89 million pounds to total 6.43 billion pounds. The average steer value is now estimated at $236.31 per hundredweight, down $1.25 from last month.

Yearly pork production was upped by 40 million pounds this month to total 27.66 billion pounds. Pork exports were lowered by 71 million pounds to a total of 6.98 billion pounds. A lack of projected Chinese imports was the primary cause of this decline. The average hog value is now pegged at $63.29 per cwt, down 50 cents from the October estimate.

The October Consumer Price Index data showed hotter than expected inflation in the month. Inflation was up 0.4 percent in October, above estimates, but below the jump in September. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was up 0.3 percent in the month. This was above street guesses and steady from September. Energy values were up another 0.7 percent in October following a 5.2 percent spike in September. Food costs were 0.5 percent higher in October, steady from last September. Overall inflation now stands at 4 percent in the U.S., twice the Federal Reserve’s target. This ongoing climb in inflation has increased the odds of a rate hike in the December Fed meeting, with some looking for a 50-basis point hike.

When it comes to global corn demand, the most interest is falling on the European Union. The EU is forecasting a corn crop of 47 mmt this year, down 1.3 mmt from prior estimates. By comparison, just 5 years ago EU corn production totaled 70 mmt. Analysts believe this low production will lead to elevated imports, and the EU has already been importing grain from Ukraine. Low water, ongoing Russian attacks, and now harsh weather are starting to prevent Ukraine exports though, and this could easily bring EU importers to the US for corn needs.

Soybean crush for the month of September was in line with trade expectations. Census reports 199 million bu of soybeans were crushed in September, slightly less than the 210 mbu in August and 205 mbu in September 2025. Plants were still undergoing maintenance in September, and when combined with tight soybean stocks, crush was impacted. Soy oil production was 2.31 billion pounds in September, 6 percent less than August and 4 percent below September 2025. End of September soy oil stocks were 1.4 billion pounds, down 200 million pounds from August. Meal stocks fell from 452,530 tons in August to 293,358 tons at the end of September.

Corn grind for ethanol totaled 438.42 mbu in September, down 9 percent from August but up 1 percent from a year ago. Dried distiller grain production totaled 1.7 million tons, down 8 percent from August and 1 percent below September 2025.

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