The USDA’s corn production estimate from the August supply and demand report was 15.1 billion bu, a 1 percent decline from 2023, but the 3rd largest crop in U.S. history. The average U.S. corn yield is estimated at a record 183.1 bushel per acre for this year, up 5.8 bushels from last year. Harvested acres on corn are down 4 percent from last year at 82.7 million though due to flooding and crop damage in the Midwest.

On the demand side of corn balance sheets, we had a 15 million bu cut to food, seed, and industrial usage for the 2023/24 marketing year, which was countered with a 25 mbu increase in exports. This generated a 10 mbu reduction to ending stocks to 1.867 bbu. This is a 12.6 percent stock to use and equates to $4.65 futures.

For new crop, corn demand was also trimmed 15 mbu for food, seed, and industrial uses, but this was offset with a 75 mbu increase in exports. This caused the new crop ending stocks projection to be trimmed to 2.07 bbu compared to trade estimates for 2.12 bbu. The new crop corn stocks to use ratio is now 13.9 percent and equates to futures of $4.20.

The United States is now forecast to harvest a record 4.59 bbu soybean crop this year, a 10 percent increase from last year’s crop. The average U.S. soybean yield is also record high at 53.2 bpa, up 2.6 bpa from a year ago. Harvested acres on soybeans are projected at 86.3 million this year, a 5 percent increase from 2023.

Soybean demand for this marketing year was left unchanged in the monthly report. This held carryout to 345 mbu, which is an 8.4 percent stocks to use and implies futures values of $12.50. For the 2024/25 balance sheets, soybean demand was bumped 4 mbu higher for seed and residual and 25 mbu higher for exports. This took new crop carryout to 560 mbu, 90 mbu more than trade was expecting. This is a 12.8 percent stocks to use and supports futures at $10.80.

Harvested acres on the U.S. wheat crop were trimmed 800,000 this year which was partially offset with a 0.4 bushel increase to yield. This took the total U.S. wheat crop to 1.98 bbu, 27 mbu less than expected, but 170 mbu more than last year’s crop. The only change in wheat demand was a 2 mbu increase in food use. This put wheat carryout at a comfortable 828 mbu which is a stock to use of 42.2 percent and an average price prediction of $5.70.

Global balance sheets for this marketing year were little changed from the July estimates. For the 2023/24 marketing year, the USDA has corn ending stocks at 308.5 million metric tons compared to 309.13 mmt in July. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 112.36 mmt versus 111.25 mmt last month. The global wheat carryout is projected at 262.36 mmt, up from 261 mmt last month.

Minimal changes were made to the world’s 2024/25 grain balance sheets as well. Corn ending stocks are forecast at 310.17 mmt, down from last month’s 311.64 mmt. Wheat carryover is projected at 256.62 mmt compared to 257.24 mmt a month ago. Changes to the world’s new crop soybean balance sheets were sizable this month. Soybean carryout jumped from 127.76 mmt last month to 134.3 mmt this month, mainly from the larger U.S. crop.

The only changes to South American production this month was to the 2023/24 Argentine crops. The USDA trimmed the Argentine corn crop by 2 mmt and the soybean crop by 500,000 mt.

Only minimal changes took place to the red meat balance sheets this month as well. Beef production for 2024 was raised 80 million pounds to a total of 26.74 billion pounds. For 2025, beef production was trimmed 20 million pounds to 25.45 billion pounds. The average steer value for 2024 is now at $188.11 per hundredweight, and for 2025 the average is $190.75.

Beef exports for 2024 are estimated at 2.94 billion pounds, up 32 million from July. The 2025 beef export forecast was held at 2.5 billion pounds. 

Pork production for 2024 is now estimated at 28.05 billion pounds, down 90 million from July. The 2025 pork production forecast was left unchanged at 28.55 billion pounds. The average hog value for 2024 is $59.38 per cwt and $57.75 per cwt for 2025.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.