President Trump’s tariff pause ended this week after allowing trading partners three months to make a new deal with the U.S. Letters were sent to over 20 countries this week informing them of their new tariff level and again urged them to make a deal, according to Lucas Fuess, Rabobank senior dairy analyst.

Speaking in the July 14 Dairy Radio Now broadcast, Fuess said the tariff varies country to country, as do the deadlines. He said this doesn’t signal a huge escalation as far as dairy is concerned. Trade with Mexico remains uninhibited due to the US, Mexico, Canada trade agreement and we await more details on trade talks with China.

Reuters reported that Trump also warned that he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on “Countries aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of the BRICS group of nations.” The group is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran and United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a news conference that there will be no amnesty for migrants in the U.S. and that mass deportations will continue. The administration had previously given some mixed signals and appeared open to some exceptions in the agriculture and hospitality industries.

USDA also announced the National Farm Security Action Plan, which it says, “Elevates American agriculture as a key element of our nation’s national security, addressing urgent threats from foreign adversaries and strengthening the resilience of our nation’s food and agricultural systems.”

“We feed the world. We lead the world. And we’ll never let foreign adversaries control our land, our labs, or our livelihoods,” Rollins stated. “This Action Plan puts America’s farmers, families, and future first.”

The “Big Beautiful Bill” got a thumbs up from the National Milk Producers Federation for its dairy and agriculture provisions, which it says will “create greater financial certainty for producers.”

The Senate Ag Committee’s portion of the bill includes numerous NMPF-backed requests including renewing the Dairy Margin Coverage program through 2031; updating its production history calculation to be based on the highest production year of 2021, 2022 or 2023; and extends the ability for producers to receive a 25 percent premium discount for locking in their coverage for the duration of the bill.

“It also funds USDA to conduct mandatory dairy processing cost surveys every two years to provide better data on future make allowances, fold remaining Inflation Reduction Act conservation dollars into the farm bill baseline, resulting in increased long-term funding for popular, oversubscribed programs like the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, and provide new trade promotion funding based on current programs that return well over $20 in export revenue for every dollar invested in the programs. Funding is increased for animal health programs that help prevent, control, and eradicate animal diseases, such as the outbreak of H5N1 in dairy cattle,” NMPF said. 

The bill impacts the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides funding for low-income households to purchase food. Dairy is a major category of those purchases, according to HighGround Dairy, and the USDA says about 42 million people participated in the program in 2023.

A key aspect included substantial reductions to SNAP funding, says HGD, and “The largest cuts since the food stamp program began in 1939, impacting millions of people who currently receive benefits. SNAP cuts are estimated differently by various news sources,” however “The program has been slashed significantly to the tune of about $200 billion over the next 10 years.”

“The age threshold for mandatory work participation has been raised from 54 to 64 years old, and parents with children over the age of 13 will now also be subject to these requirements. In contrast, previously, parents with dependents were generally exempt from this requirement. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that these changes would cut more than 2 million individuals from the program,” says HGD. “Moreover, beginning in 2028, the changes could shift some of the financial responsibility for SNAP to the states.”

“The One Big Beautiful Bill Act brings a mix of opportunity and uncertainty for the dairy industry,” says HighGround. “On the positive side, updates to the DMC program, increased funding for conservation, trade, and animal health initiatives, along with long-awaited business and estate tax reforms, offer meaningful support for dairy producers and rural communities. However, these benefits are tempered by concerns over weakened consumer demand, driven by significant cuts to nutrition assistance programs and broader impacts on wealth inequality, the overall economy, and household spending. As the full effects of the legislation unfold, it will be important to monitor how these provisions shape both on-farm economics and consumer behavior moving forward,” says HGD.

You’ll recall May milk production was up 1.6 percent from a year ago. The USDA’s latest Dairy Products report shows milk continues to flow to the churn and vat.

Cheese output totaled 1.252 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from April, and up 3.3 percent from May 2024. April output was revised up 6 million pounds. Total output for the first five months of 2025 hit 6.1 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from 2024.

Mozzarella production totaled 408.4 million pounds, up 0.8 percent from a year ago. American cheese, at 511.8 million pounds, was up 3.3 percent from April and 5.6 percent above a year ago. Italian style cheeses totaled 517.4 million pounds, up 1.0 percent from April and up 2.4 percent from a year ago.

Cheddar production jumped to 355.7 million pounds, up 14.9 million pounds or 4.4 percent from April, and up a whopping 31.3 million or 9.6 percent from a year ago. Revisions added 2.7 million pounds to the April total. YTD Cheddar hit 1.7 billion pounds, up 4.8 percent from a year ago.

Butter output fell to 211.9 million pounds, down 2.5 million pounds or 1.2 percent from April, but was up 7.1 million or 3.5 percent from a year ago. YTD butter hit 1.1 billion pounds, up 3.7 percent from a year ago.

Yogurt production totaled 423.7 million pounds, up 5.3 percent from a year ago. Hard ice cream, at 64.1 million pounds, was down 4.4 percent from 2024.

Dry whey output jumped to 72.7 million pounds, up 3.1 million pounds or 4.4 percent from April, and up 4.4 million or 6.5 percent from a year ago. Whey stocks grew to 63.7 million pounds, up 3.2 million or 5.3 percent from April, but down 800,000 pounds or 1.2 percent from a year ago.

Nonfat dry milk output fell to 158.3 million pounds, down 4.6 million or 2.8 percent from April, and down 9.4 million pounds or 5.6 percent from a year ago. Stocks fell to 249.9 million pounds, down 21.5 million, or 7.9 percent from April, and down 2.3 million pounds or 0.9 percent from 2024.

Skim milk powder production grew to 47.8 million pounds, up 12.3 million pounds or 34.8 percent from April, but was down 1.9 million or 3.8 percent from a year ago.

May U.S. dairy exports declined 0.7 percent from a year ago, “Primarily due to lower volumes of powders and trade tensions earlier in 2025,” says HighGround Dairy, “When these sales would have been made.”

Exports to China decreased 68 percent and exports to Mexico were down 6.9 percent.