DECATUR, Ill. — Three days of gorgeous, sunny weather and below-average temperatures had farmers attending the 2025 Farm Progress Show itching to get back to their fields to harvest their crops. Inside the University of Illinois College of ACES tent, much of the talk on Wednesday, August 27 was of the expected bumper (and perhaps record bumper) crop some analysts are predicting for the state. During a taping of WILL-FM’s Commodity Week radio program inside the bustling tent, John Jones, Assistant Professor of Agronomy and Soil Fertility Extension Specialist at the U of I, offered his opinion on the 2025 corn and soybean harvest. 

“Regionality is coming into play across the state. We saw some pretty big differences in planting dates. I think what we’re going to end up seeing this year is how resilient and flexible a lot of our hybrids are, particularly on the corn side. To not only biomass and accumulation of nutrients and carbon and sugars, but also how well we can adapt to different timings and the management that was applied to them,” said Jones. “There were some pretty big planting differences as we went north to south and east to west, but that sort of got mixed in the wash when you look at some of the yield potential that we are seeing in Illinois.”

Corn plants that switched to reproductive stage during the July hot spell of prolonged warmer-than-average nighttime temperatures and enjoyed a rapid accumulation of growing degree days may have more of an advantage in yield potential over the plants that didn’t, according to Jones. He acknowledged that some farmers are reporting corn ear abnormalities.

“I think it’s worth doing some diagnostics on ears; let’s say if you have a water heat stressed ear as opposed to a pollination issue, you’ll have some different deformities in how that ear developed from the bottom to the tip of the ear in terms of the kernel development. If you’re able to identify that it was water stress you will see a more consistent lack of kernels or kernel depth,” Jones said.

“If you’re dealing with a pollination issue early, you will look at the butts of those ears and see the kernels a little more deformed. There are differences in the ear development that may allow you to do sort of a post-mortem on what happened with your corn crop. Growing degree days are very important.”

Megan Diss, an Extension commercial agriculture specialist from Monmouth, said farmers in her central Illinois county are expecting an excellent harvest. “We’re seeing pretty good yields, everything looks pretty good. We are seeing a little bit of ear tipping and a lot of disease pressure, but are still seeing yields on par or above par this year. The ear tipping we are seeing is not as bad as in other parts of the state, but we are seeing a little bit of it.”

Salem, Illinois’ Dane Hunter, an Extension commercial ag specialist who covers southern Illinois, said many farmers in his area planted late and then had to deal with dry early-growth conditions. “If we have average yields I think we will be lucky. I think there are a lot of spots where it is not going to happen,” Hunter said, adding that corn farmers in his area are happy to harvest an average of 160 bushels per acre in a normal year. 

Southern rust, which was confirmed in eight Illinois counties and several surrounding states in July, hasn’t seemed to be a major factor in Marion and surrounding counties, he added. “I think that down where we are the corn was just so small and so late, and when it got big enough to get infected it got dry. I think that’s part of the reason we haven’t seen a lot of disease in my area,” Hunter said. 

According to Steve Brand, Extension agriculture and agribusiness specialist, corn yields are looking “really good” in northern Illinois. “We were dry early on and coming out of a dry winter, so everything was stunted early on,” said Brand, of St. Charles in McHenry County. 

“Over a handful of weeks, maybe a month, we got caught up with a lot of rain, with very heavy isolated storms. That’s going to keep producing through ear fill. We had such a drought early in the season that disease really didn’t show up until R1 or R2, and we are seeing some of the southern rust up there, but we are not expecting too much of an economic loss. If you sprayed with fungicides your corn is looking incredible, and if you didn’t it’s looking a little beat up but I don’t think you’ll have much yield loss. 

Todd Gleason, WILL-FM agricultural broadcaster and a grower from Elkhart in Logan County, told Farm World that his corn crop is looking to come in around 18 bushels or more above his farm’s actual production history (APH) of 232 bu./acre. “I’m expecting about 250 bushels or more, and the expectation for my area is probably 10 bushels or more above APH.”