It is no secret that several regions of the United States were stressed during the growing season, from both weather and plant disease. Even weather was mixed this year, with some regions of the Corn Belt seeing excessive moisture while others were in drought most of the season. One thing much of the Corn Belt experienced was a hot finish to the growing season and this was noted in reports of extremely low moisture content on soybeans, along with some pods not filling properly. Heavy disease pressure was seen in the U.S. corn crop, mainly southern rust and tar spot, but of which caused yield loss of upward of 70 bushels per acre in some regions. The combination of these factors has several analysts doubting USDA crop estimates, even with private firms keeping production elevated.

The primary story of recent trade has been the trade meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi from China. While this meeting focused heavily upon technology and rare earth minerals, soybeans were included as hoped for. China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year, and then 25 mmt for three following years. China also bought several soybean vessels as soon as the agreement was reached, and is showing more interest in other commodities, including wheat.

The initial reaction to this was two-sided, but overall market reaction was less than hoped for. This is primarily because the 25 mmt of soybean imports is equal to what China was importing prior to the latest trade war. History shows that for the past six years, China’s U.S. soybean imports have ranged from 20 mmt to 31 mmt. The soybean complex was hoping for a build in China’s market share, and the actual total was disappointing.

One positive result from the meeting was news out of Beijing that China would be dropping several tariffs. Starting Nov. 10th, China’s retaliatory tariffs were removed on several ag products, but these may still be subject to an import levy of 10 percent. Soybeans were excluded from this, holding an import tariff of 13 percent. Even with the recent trade agreement, this will keep U.S. soybeans too expensive for import.

While more soybean demand is desired, it may not be possible to satisfy any additional usage. Domestic soybean demand is steadily rising for biofuel production, and when combined with our current export forecast and production, soybean ending stocks continue to tighten. Our current U.S. soybean carryout is in a rationing position at 290 million bu, and that is with a record 53.5 bushel per acre yield that was forecast in September. Since then, the U.S. soybean crop has arguably gotten smaller.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its August soy oil demand data for biodiesel manufacturing with mixed numbers. Soy oil demand from the industry totaled 1.04 billion pounds, and represented 39 percent of total raw stock for production. This was the highest percentage of inclusion since September 2023. Even so, total soy oil consumption was down 6 percent from July and 14.5 percent less than August 2024 as biodiesel manufacturing slowed.

Ukraine officials have released the country’s October grain and oilseed export numbers with mixed totals. Corn exports totaled 1.1 million metric tons, well above the 61,000 mt from September. October wheat exports totaled 1.5 mmt, down from the 1.8 mmt in September. Soybean exports came in at 230,000 mt and canola was 177,000 mt. Total Ukraine ag product exports for October were 3.2 mmt, versus 2.4 mmt a month ago. These higher corn exports have made a dent in U.S. corn sales.

A study from Purdue University along with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group indicates U.S. farmer sentiment improved in the month of October. The sentiment index reading ended October at 129 points, an increase of 3 points from September. This increase was from current market condition readings that is very favorable for livestock producers. Crop farmers currently have a less optimistic market view, but this has improved with the return of Chinese buying.

Russian officials have released their grain export quota for the last half of the marketing year. The Russian government will allow 20 mmt of grains exports for the February to July time frame. This is nearly twice the 10.6 mmt that was allowed last year. Corn and barley exports will also be allowed this year, as last year the quota was mostly for wheat. Russia only sets quotas on the last half of their marketing year to regulate domestic reserves. In many years these are above what Russia actually exports.

Now that the calendar has turned to November, the fall crop insurance levels have been set. Harvest insurance values are determined using the average of December corn and November soybeans in the month of October. The average corn value was $4.22, up 6 cents from last year but 48 cents under the spring average. The average soybean value for the month was $10.35, up 32 cents from a year ago, but down 19 cents from spring.

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