Mielke Market Weekly By Lee Mielke The March Federal order benchmark Class III milk price is $16.16 per hundredweight (cwt.), up $1.22 from February, but $2.46 below March 2025. It is the highest Class III price since November 2025. The three-month average stands at $15.23, down from $19.71 a year ago, and compares to $15.86 in 2024. Wednesday’s Class III futures settlements portend an April price at $17.49; May, $17.97; June, $18.45; and July at $18.80, with a peak at $18.95 in September. The March Class IV price is $18.94, up $2.65 from February, 73 cents above a year ago, and the highest Class IV price since February 2025. Its three-month average is $16.26, down from $19.61 a year ago, and $19.78 in 2024. Dairy margins were flat to slightly firmer over the second half of March as feed costs were steady awaiting the key Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports from USDA at the end of the month while milk prices firmed, according to the latest Margin Watch (MW) from Chicago-based Commodity and Ingredient Hedging LLC. “Milk futures are being supported by strong demand, particularly on the export front, which is preventing a build in dairy product stocks despite increased domestic milk production,” the MW stated and details the February Milk Production and Cold Storage reports which I have detailed previously. Cash block Cheddar climbed to $1.6725 per pound Thursday, as traders anticipated the afternoon’s February Dairy Products report. That’s up 9 cents on the week so far, highest CME price since Oct.31, 2025, and 3.25 cents above a year ago. The barrels were trading Thursday at $1.5925, 2.75 cents higher on the week, highest since Nov. 20, 2025, but 6.75 cents below a year ago. Central region milk production is strong and Midwest contacts told Dairy Market News that output is trending higher. The increased milk and downtime at some plants in the region was causing more processors to offer loads below-Class prices which ranged $7-under to $2-under Class at mid-week. Cheese production is steady to lighter, as some plants had downtime this week. Domestic cheese demand from retail and food service end users was unchanged. Spring milk production is strong in the West and sufficiently meeting cheese manufacturer needs. Cheese output was steady. Cheese is not abundant and spot avails were somewhat dependent on variety. Some manufacturers report inventories are extremely limited, and production is anticipated to be focused on contractual commitments through second quarter. Domestic demand is steady. Export interest is steady to strong. Sellers report strong mozzarella demand from domestic and international buyers, according to DMN. Butter fell to $1.7525 per pound Wednesday but regained 3.75 cents Thursday to close at $1.79, 3.50 cents lower on the week, and 50.50 cents below a year ago. Cream production is strong in the Central region. Some processors had planned downtime this weekend and were offering loads on the spot market. However, demand from Class II and III processors have kept inventories tight and well balanced. Churning is active. Demand is strong for bulk butter and from retailers, while food service demand is steady, but remains somewhat light. Export interest was unchanged, says DMN. Spring milk output and cream production continues strong in the West. Spot cream availability is tighter as interest from other manufacturers has increased. Cream prices continue to have upward momentum. Demand from butter makers is light to steady. Butter production is heavy and up from a year ago. Retail demand is steady to strong, food service lighter to steady. Butter makers note strong bulk demand from domestic and international buyers, according to DMN. Grade A nonfat dry milk remains strong and powered its way to $1.9725 per pound Thursday, highest CME price in 12 years, April 8, 2014 to be exact, 5 cents higher on the week so far and 81.50 cents above a year ago. National Milk says that nonfat dry milk’s price rally is in part due to “An insatiable domestic demand for high protein dairy products like Greek yogurt and cottage cheese. Alongside cheese, these products have pulled skim milk out of the dryers, leading to a tighter supply of NFDM. While dairy protein demand shows no signs of slowing, NFDM’s recent price rally places the US above EU and New Zealand powder prices, which may slow exports to Asia until prices converge.” Dry whey was trading Thursday at 68.75 cents per pound, down a quarter-cent on the week, but 19.75 cents above a year ago. The March 30 Daily Dairy Report says “Rising cheese production has ensured that an abundant stream of raw whey is available for whey processors to use. However, manufacturers are persistently routing raw whey toward higher-value ingredients, limiting input availability for low-protein products. And that is helping support the price of commodity dry whey. “In 2025, total production of dry whey slipped to 831.6 million pounds, down 3 percent from the prior year,” the DDR stated, “Marking the lowest annual output since 1982. At the same time, production of whey protein isolates (WPI) rose 11 percent in 2025. Growing demand, both here and abroad, has underpinned the push toward high-value whey ingredients. As consumers pursue healthier diets and with the expanding use of GLP-1 medications further encouraging protein consumption, demand for high-value whey ingredients, such as WPI and whey protein concentrates, has soared,” according to the DDR. Bottom line, the DDR concludes “Milk pricing formulas consider the dry whey price, and these values can provide critical support as each penny gain in the dry whey price adds about 6 cents to the Class III price. If dry whey production remains limited and prices remain supported, the relationship between whey prices and Class III prices will likely provide some welcome support to producer incomes over coming months.” The USDAt’s Prospective Plantings Report, issued Tuesday, showed corn at an estimated 95.3 million acres, down 3 percent or 3.45 million acres from last year. Planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states, according to the report. Soybean plantings was estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4 percent from a year ago. Planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states. The accompanying Grain Stocks report showed March 1 corn stocks at 9.02 billion bushels, up 11 percent from March 1, 2025. Soybeans totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10 percent. An increase in the All Milk Price, first rise since August 2025, offset higher feed prices to give the February feed price ratio a lift, ending four consecutive declines. The USDA’s latest Ag Prices report has February at 2.17, up from 2.09 in January, but compares to 2.68 in Feb. 2025. The All Milk Price hit $18.30 per cwt., with a 4.46 percent butterfat test, up 80 cents from January’s $17.50 on a 4.48 percent test, but compares to $23.60 a year ago which had a 4.43 percent test. The national corn price averaged $4.11 per bushel, up a penny from January but 47 cents below Feb. 2025. Soybeans averaged $10.60 per bushel, up a dime from January, and 40 cents per bushel above a year ago. Alfalfa hay averaged $159 per ton, down $1 from January, and dead even with a year ago.
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