For the 2026 U.S. planting season, farmers are expected to seed 95.3 million to corn, 3.45 million fewer than last year and about a million more than trade expected. Soybean plantings are estimated at 84.7 million, which would be a 4 percent increase from 2025. Total U.S. wheat acreage is estimated at 43.8 million, down 3 percent from last year. If correct, this would be the fewest U.S. wheat acres since record keeping began in 1919.

The quarterly stocks data was mixed for trade. The U.S. corn inventory on March 1st totaled 9.02 billion bu, an 11 percent increase from last year. Of this, 5.43 bbu was held on-farm, a 21 percent increase from last year. Off-farm stocks were down 2 percent at 3.59 bbu. Second quarter corn disappearance totaled 4.28 bbu, up from 3.93 bbu last year.

Soybean stocks on March 1st totaled 2.1 bbu, a 10 percent increase from March 2025. On-farm soybean stocks were up 3 percent at 900 million bu while off-farm stocks were 16 percent higher at 1.2 bbu. Soybean consumption in the 2nd quarter totaled 1.18 bbu, 1 percent less than a year ago.

The U.S. wheat stocks on March 1st were 1.3 bbu, a year-to-year increase of 5 percent. On-farm wheat stocks totaled 298 mbu, a decrease of 3 percent. Off-farm stocks were 1 bbu, an 8 percent increase on the year. Wheat consumption last quarter was up 12 percent from last year at 377 mbu.

The March cattle on feed report was a little surprising for trade. The March 1st U.S. cattle inventory in lots greater than 1,000 head totaled 11.5 million, nearly equal to a year ago. February marketings were as expected at 1.52 million head, 7 percent fewer than last year. February placements were 4 percent greater than last February, which was immediately questioned by trade.

The doubt came from the low cattle numbers in the U.S. and tight replacement inventory to buy from. The February 2025 placement number was much lower than expected though, so even with lighter placements this year, the total is still higher. A less surprising number will likely be seen for March.

The USDA also reported a U.S. dairy herd of 9.62 million head on March 1st, 210,000 more than a year ago.

China’s hog market remains under economic stress. Hog values in China have fallen 10 percent in the past week with losses seen in six consecutive sessions. One reason for this is China’s hog feeders continue to downsize their herds to return profitability to the industry. China’s government had previously ordered this culling, but is now strictly enforcing it. At the same time Chinese pork demand has fallen ever since the end of the Lunar New Year celebrations. Pork values have declined to a point where government buying mechanisms have been triggered which should start to support values. This will likely reduce China’s pork imports at the same time.

The latest monthly cold storage report showed U.S. red meat inventories continue to decline. The United States’ beef inventory on February 28th was 413.34 million pounds, 3 percent less than the end of January and 5 percent less than the end of February 2025. Pork stocks were nearly steady from January and down 5 percent from last year at 403.5 million pounds. The U.S. pork belly supply was 44.9 million pounds, a 5 percent increase from January, but a year-to-year decline of 8 percent. Total U.S. red meat stocks at the end of February were down 2 percent for the month and 5 percent for the year.

The March 1st quarterly hog and pig report came in mostly as expected. The total number of hogs in the U.S. totaled 74.3 million on March 1st, 100 percent of last year. A 1 percent increase had been expected to the herd size. March 1st breeding hogs numbered 5.89 million, 1 percent fewer than last March. Market hogs were up 1 percent year to year with 68.4 million. These numbers indicate little relief for tightening US pork supplies.

Rising energy costs are becoming a major concern for the U.S. economy. Since the start of the Iran war the average U.S. gasoline retail cost has increased $1.02 a gallon. Retail diesel has increased by $1.75 a gallon at the same time. These are a result of crude rallying 47 percent on the NYMEX market and Brent crude spiking 53 percent following the start of the war. Not only are these costs directly impacting consumers, but we are now seeing fuel surcharges that are being added to product costs. These rising energy costs are the main reason global inflation has jumped from 2.8 percent in December to a current 4 percent.

It is no surprise that China’s soybean imports to start 2026 heavily favored Brazil over the United States. During January and February, China imported 6.56 mmt of soybeans from Brazil, an increase of 83 percent from last year. China imported just 1.49 mmt of soybeans from the U.S. over this period, an 84 percent decline from a year ago. This was prior to China taking delivery of its delayed start to U.S. soybean purchases though, which will improve the spread as the year progresses.

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