No changes were made to the production side of domestic corn balance sheets this month. We did see a 125 million bu increase to old crop demand from the June stocks data, which lowered 2025/26 carryout to 2.02 billion bu. This filtered through to a 120 mbu decline in new crop carryin. New crop exports were bumped up 50 mbu given recent demand. The result was a 170 mbu decline in 2026/27 ending stocks, taking them to 1.79 bbu. This was 100 mbu less than the average trade guess. The new crop stocks-to-use ratio is now 11 percent and right at a rationing level.

As with corn, no significant changes were made to domestic soybean production numbers. Old crop exports were bumped up 10 mbu, cutting ending stocks to 330 mbu. This partially offset 40 mbu of added production due to added acres. The 30-mbu gain in production was fully offset by an equal increase in new crop exports. The net result was a 2026/27 carryout of 310 mbu, unchanged from June but 20 mbu less than trade expected. The soybean stocks to use is now 6.9 percent and in rationing territory.

Several small changes were made to U.S. old crop wheat balance sheets as that marketing year came to a close. The end result was a 920 mbu old crop carryout, 14 mbu less than the prior estimate. Total U.S. wheat production for 2026/27 was trimmed 7 mbu, putting it at 1.536 bbu. This is the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1970. A winter wheat yield of just 54.9 bushels per acre, the lowest since 2015, was a primary factor for this drop. The U.S. new crop wheat carryout is now estimated at 722 mbu, a 38.6 percent stocks to use.

More changes were seen in global balance sheets. For the 2025/26 marketing year the world corn carryout is estimated at 298.67 million metric tons compared to 303.36 mmt in June. World soybean stocks for this year are now at 125.33 mmt compared to 125.52 mmt last month. The world wheat supply is estimated at 279.04 mmt, down slightly from last month’s 279.95 mmt.

As for the 2026/27 marketing year, most numbers came in below expectations. The new crop corn carryout is now forecast at 275.26 mmt compared to 281.22 mmt in June. Global soybean ending stocks are estimated at 124.17 mmt, down from 124.88 mmt a month ago. The world wheat carryout is projected at 272.84 mmt, 2.6 mmt less than the June estimate.

Several changes were made to red meat balance sheets. Beef production for 2026 is estimated at 25.29 billion pounds, 150 million fewer than in June. Production for 2027 is estimated at 25.2 billion pounds, down 190 million from last month. Beef exports for this year were lowered 10 million pounds to total 2.33 billion, while 2027 exports were left unchanged at 2.325 billion pounds. Beef imports for this year were lowered by 50 million pounds to 6.06 billion pounds total, and 2027 imports were held at 6 billion pounds. The average steer value is now $251.10 per hundredweight for 2026 and $254.25 per cwt for 2027.

On pork, production for this year was cut 40 million pounds to total 27.96 billion pounds. Pork production for 2027 now stands at 28.14 billion pounds, down 150 million pounds from last month. Pork exports were trimmed 15 million pounds for 2026, putting them at 7.237 billion pounds. Pork exports for 2027 were left unchanged at 7.33 billion pounds. The average hog value is now estimated at $64.82 per cwt for 2026 and $64.75 per cwt for 2027.

The Rosario Grain Exchange has updated its Argentine production estimates. Rosario left its soybean crop unchanged this month at 51.5 mmt compared to the USDA’s 55 mmt. The group’s corn crop estimate was also steady this month at 68 mmt, well above the USDA’s 61 mmt. This difference is also being seen in wheat with an Argentine crop estimate of 20.5 mmt, up 500,000 mt from before. This is still well below the USDA’s 27.9 mmt estimate. A difference in planted acreage is the primary reason for the production discrepancies on these crops.

Ukraine is maintaining large grain crop production estimates despite recent weather stress. Ukraine officials still believe the country will produce a 30 mmt crop this year. The country’s wheat crop estimate was actually bumped up to 23 mmt which is at the top end of the previous estimate range. The USDA is using Ukraine crop sizes of 30.9 mmt on corn and 24.1 mmt of wheat in global balance sheets.

Weather stress also continues to impact European Union crops. The firm COCERAL is stating that EU and United Kingdom grain production has been lost from the extreme heat and lack of rainfall. Total soft wheat production for this region is forecast at 140.8 mmt, a decrease of 3 mmt from the last estimate. Corn production is forecast at 52.7 mmt, down from the prior 57.2 mmt projection. France has also cut is crop ratings from adverse weather, with wheat now rated 65 percent Good/Excellent, down 3 percent, and the corn crop rated 47 percent G/E, down 10 percent in the past week.

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