A concerning report came out of the American Farm Bureau Federation regarding the U.S. farm economy. According to a report from the group, U.S. Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings spiked in 2025. Data shows there were 315 Chapter 12 filings in 2025, up 46 percent from 2024. The highest cases were in the Midwest and Southeast with 226. Low commodity values have been compounded by production losses and elevated input costs to strain the U.S. farm economy.

What is most concerning is this is the second consecutive year of higher bankruptcies after four years of declines. U.S. Chapter 12 bankruptcies peaked at 599 in 2019 and declined to a low of 139 in 2023. Given current market economic outlooks, conditions may not improve in 2026.

U.S. farmer sentiment continues to decline as worries over the state of the U.S. farm economy grow. Data shows U.S. operating note loans are up 40 percent from a year ago, and the size of loans are up 30 percent. Farmers blame low commodity values, rising input costs, and unfavorable trade policies for the current state of the farm economy. As a result, U.S. lawmakers, ag economists, and USDA officials have reached out to both Ag Committee members, and even President Donald Trump to look into ways to improve the economy.

Recent weather events have disrupted commodity movement across the interior market. Several terminals have had to pay quick ship incentives to entice movement, but even then, selling interest has been low from harsh weather, mainly bitter cold. Winter weather has not only impacted truck movement, but barge shipping as well. Water levels on U.S. rivers remain low from drought conditions last fall, and now we are seeing icing take place. This has limited barge movement south and caused export basis to firm.

Commodity futures have started to see a little pressure from Brazil’s harvest, but cash markets remain firm. A big part of this recently has been weather, which is not uncommon in winter months. Bitter cold and several storm systems have made it quite difficult to haul grain, and farmers are showing little interest in doing so. Adequate cash flow from recent sales and government support payments have lessened the need to market more inventory. The next big flush of farm stored inventory may not come until early spring, depending upon when U.S. spring fieldwork gets underway.

The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange revised its crop ratings, and once again cut the soybean crop condition. BAGE now has the Argentine soybean crop rated 40 percent Good/Excellent and 25 percent Poor/Very Poor. This compares to last week’s 47 percent G/E and 16 percent P/VP and is the fifth consecutive week of lower crop ratings. We are also hearing reports of corn in the state of Cordoba being cut for silage as it will not make grain quality. There are also thoughts that the corn crop will die before reaching full maturity. These have led to analysts cutting their Argentine crop estimates in recent weeks.

The United Nations has reported that global food values retreated for the fifth consecutive month in January. The global food index held a reading at the end of January of 123.9. This was down 0.4 percent from December and 0.6 percent less than at the end of January 2025. Grains and oilseeds rose in value in January, but this was offset by declines in dairy and meat costs. The greatest was in dairy, with prices -5 percent in the month.

Numbers from the January semi-annual report indicated the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951 at 86.2 million head. This was followed by the Tyson CEO stating the U.S. cattle herd will remain tight through 2027 and there is doubt over the resumption of Mexican feeder imports anytime soon. As a result, U.S. cattle futures have been difficult to pressure in recent months and likely will remain that way. Tyson expects to see an increase in chicken consumption over this time, which will start to temper beef and cattle values.

The global corn market is closely monitoring China farmer sales. Chinese farmers have started to market more corn, according to research from the Sitonia group. These elevated sales are coming prior to warmer spring temperatures that could easily compound mold issues in stored corn.

China’s corn crop is reportedly high in toxins from last year’s growing conditions with upward of 10 percent being unusable for feed. China has tuned to feed grain imports as a result, including large volumes of U.S. sorghum. Now that stored corn is moving, the need for imports may decline, but are still likely to be needed for blending with domestic inventory.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released data showing crude oil values will likely fall for the next two years. The EIA feels that Brent crude oil will decline from an average of $69.00 a barrel in 2025 to an average of $58.00 in 2026. In 2027, the average is expected to decline to $53. Overproduction has led to a global build in crude oil reserves, as is a shift to more renewable fuel usage. The concern is this could lead to pressure on renewable fuel margins, and pressure that industry.

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